固体地球科学(S)
セッション小記号 火山学(VC)
セッションID S-VC37
タイトル 和文 Understanding the links between volcanic unrest and future, or past, major eruptions
英文 Understanding the links between volcanic unrest and future, or past, major eruptions
タイトル短縮名 和文 Volcanic unrest and major eruptions
英文 Volcanic unrest and major eruptions
代表コンビーナ 氏名 和文 山田 大志
英文 Taishi Yamada
所属 和文 京都大学防災研究所 火山防災研究センター
英文 Research Center for Volcano Hazards Mitigation, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
共同コンビーナ 1 氏名 和文 田中 良
英文 Ryo Tanaka
所属 和文 北海道大学大学院理学研究院附属地震火山研究観測センター
英文 Hokkaido University,Institute of Seismology and Volcanology
共同コンビーナ 2 氏名 和文 James Hickey
英文 James Hickey
所属 和文 University of Exeter
英文 University of Exeter
共同コンビーナ 3 氏名 和文 Gilles Seropian
英文 Gilles Seropian
所属 和文 University of Exeter
英文 University of Exeter
発表言語 E
スコープ 和文
Major volcanic eruptions (e.g., VEI>4) have provided valuable lessons for understanding volcanic hazards and have helped advance the field of volcanology. However, it is usually rare to experience a major eruption even several times in our lifetime. Most active volcanoes are typically in an unrest state, characterized by events including, but not limited to, transient volcanic earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and surface thermal anomalies. One of our ultimate goals is to gain a future perspective on volcanic activity beyond the unrest, although numerous challenges lie ahead. In this session, we aim to bridge this "gap" by considering unrest as a precursor or aftermath of major eruptions. In particular, the primary driving process of a major eruption is magma intrusion towards the surface from a subsurface reservoir. What observable precursors are expected from our cutting-edge understanding of magma reservoir and intrusion processes? In the other direction, how is the magma reservoir expected to form from the ongoing unrest activities? For example, recent advances in thermomechanical magma reservoir dynamics and magma fracture processes may provide us with direct insights into the link between the magma reservoir and unrest manifestations. Detailed long-term onsite observation (e.g., seismic, geodetic, thermal, and geochemical) and geological and petrological investigations may also provide insight into the hosting magma reservoir and any potential related shallower hydrothermal system. Degassing from a magma reservoir can be a fundamental key to interpreting the physics behind any continuous unrest activity, and where experimental and numerical approaches are highly essential for the understanding.
The JpGU-AGU 2026 is an excellent opportunity for such a challenging yet aspirational discussion. We welcome submissions from various fields including those with observational, computational, or experimental approaches, and beyond the existing research frameworks.
英文
Major volcanic eruptions (e.g., VEI>4) have provided valuable lessons for understanding volcanic hazards and have helped advance the field of volcanology. However, it is usually rare to experience a major eruption even several times in our lifetime. Most active volcanoes are typically in an unrest state, characterized by events including, but not limited to, transient volcanic earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and surface thermal anomalies. One of our ultimate goals is to gain a future perspective on volcanic activity beyond the unrest, although numerous challenges lie ahead. In this session, we aim to bridge this "gap" by considering unrest as a precursor or aftermath of major eruptions. In particular, the primary driving process of a major eruption is magma intrusion towards the surface from a subsurface reservoir. What observable precursors are expected from our cutting-edge understanding of magma reservoir and intrusion processes? In the other direction, how is the magma reservoir expected to form from the ongoing unrest activities? For example, recent advances in thermomechanical magma reservoir dynamics and magma fracture processes may provide us with direct insights into the link between the magma reservoir and unrest manifestations. Detailed long-term onsite observation (e.g., seismic, geodetic, thermal, and geochemical) and geological and petrological investigations may also provide insight into the hosting magma reservoir and any potential related shallower hydrothermal system. Degassing from a magma reservoir can be a fundamental key to interpreting the physics behind any continuous unrest activity, and where experimental and numerical approaches are highly essential for the understanding.
The JpGU-AGU 2026 is an excellent opportunity for such a challenging yet aspirational discussion. We welcome submissions from various fields including those with observational, computational, or experimental approaches, and beyond the existing research frameworks.
発表方法 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション
時間 講演番号 タイトル 発表者
口頭発表 5月27日 AM2
10:45 - 11:00 SVC37-01 A Process-Based Framework for Interpreting Plinian Eruption Precursors: Insights from the 2014 Kelud Volcano Eruption and Implications for Sakurajima Vico Luthfi Ipmawan
11:00 - 11:15 SVC37-02 Characterisation of the 2022–23 unrest episode at Taupō volcano Eleanor Rachel Heiser Mestel
11:15 - 11:30 SVC37-03 Numerical models of magma storage and pathways between Aira Caldera and Sakurajima Volcano, Japan. Lorenzo Mantiloni
11:30 - 11:45 SVC37-04 桜島における火山灰時系列解析に基づくブルカノ式噴火のスケール支配要因の検討 嶋野 岳人
11:45 - 12:00 SVC37-05 Detailed pre-eruptive deformation of Kirishima-Iwoyama volcano, revealed by InSAR and leveling survey 成田 翔平
12:00 - 12:15 SVC37-06 How does a deep chamber modulate the dynamics of a shallow one? Insights from Santorini caldera, southern Aegean Kostas Konstantinou
講演番号 タイトル 発表者
ポスター発表 5月27日 PM3
SVC37-P01 ドローン Multi-GAS 観測に基づく十勝岳火山ガス組成とガス供給メカニズムの推定 田中 良
SVC37-P02 Melt Channelization and the Generation of Eruptible Magma in Crystal-Rich Reservoirs Rami Alshembari
SVC37-P03 Magma migration during the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis 松田 瑞希
SVC37-P04 Characterizing the two-stage deflation process during eruptions at Sakurajima volcano 石井 杏佳
SVC37-P05 Characteristic ground deformation cycle detected before and during the 2025 eruption at Shinmoe-dake, Kirishima volcanoes, Japan 柘植 鮎太
SVC37-P06 Sequences of Eruptive and Inter-Eruptive Activity of Kirishima Volcano, Revealed by Seismic Tremors and Infrasound 市原 美恵
SVC37-P07 Tracking the Incremental Volcanic Unrest at Campi Flegrei Caldera Using Geodetic Techniques Prohelika Dalal
SVC37-P08 ダイク貫入としての口永良部島火山地盤膨張の検討 山田 大志