Solid Earth Sciences (S)
Session Sub-category Volcanology(VC)
Session ID S-VC37
Title Understanding the links between volcanic unrest and future, or past, major eruptions
Short Title Volcanic unrest and major eruptions
Main Convener Name Taishi Yamada
Affiliation Research Center for Volcano Hazards Mitigation, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Co-Convener 1 Name Ryo Tanaka
Affiliation Hokkaido University,Institute of Seismology and Volcanology
Co-Convener 2 Name James Hickey
Affiliation University of Exeter
Co-Convener 3 Name Gilles Seropian
Affiliation University of Exeter
Session Language
E
Scope
Major volcanic eruptions (e.g., VEI>4) have provided valuable lessons for understanding volcanic hazards and have helped advance the field of volcanology. However, it is usually rare to experience a major eruption even several times in our lifetime. Most active volcanoes are typically in an unrest state, characterized by events including, but not limited to, transient volcanic earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and surface thermal anomalies. One of our ultimate goals is to gain a future perspective on volcanic activity beyond the unrest, although numerous challenges lie ahead. In this session, we aim to bridge this "gap" by considering unrest as a precursor or aftermath of major eruptions. In particular, the primary driving process of a major eruption is magma intrusion towards the surface from a subsurface reservoir. What observable precursors are expected from our cutting-edge understanding of magma reservoir and intrusion processes? In the other direction, how is the magma reservoir expected to form from the ongoing unrest activities? For example, recent advances in thermomechanical magma reservoir dynamics and magma fracture processes may provide us with direct insights into the link between the magma reservoir and unrest manifestations. Detailed long-term onsite observation (e.g., seismic, geodetic, thermal, and geochemical) and geological and petrological investigations may also provide insight into the hosting magma reservoir and any potential related shallower hydrothermal system. Degassing from a magma reservoir can be a fundamental key to interpreting the physics behind any continuous unrest activity, and where experimental and numerical approaches are highly essential for the understanding.
The JpGU-AGU 2026 is an excellent opportunity for such a challenging yet aspirational discussion. We welcome submissions from various fields including those with observational, computational, or experimental approaches, and beyond the existing research frameworks.
Presentation Format Oral and Poster presentation
Time Presentation No Title Presenter
Oral Presentation May 27 AM2
10:45 - 11:00 SVC37-01 A Process-Based Framework for Interpreting Plinian Eruption Precursors: Insights from the 2014 Kelud Volcano Eruption and Implications for Sakurajima Vico Luthfi Ipmawan
11:00 - 11:15 SVC37-02 Characterisation of the 2022–23 unrest episode at Taupō volcano Eleanor Rachel Heiser Mestel
11:15 - 11:30 SVC37-03 Numerical models of magma storage and pathways between Aira Caldera and Sakurajima Volcano, Japan. Lorenzo Mantiloni
11:30 - 11:45 SVC37-04 Mechanisms controlling the scale of vulcanian eruptions at Sakurajima volcano, SW Japan, based on monitoring of ash samples with various timescales. Taketo Shimano
11:45 - 12:00 SVC37-05 Detailed pre-eruptive deformation of Kirishima-Iwoyama volcano, revealed by InSAR and leveling survey Shohei Narita
12:00 - 12:15 SVC37-06 How does a deep chamber modulate the dynamics of a shallow one? Insights from Santorini caldera, southern Aegean Kostas Konstantinou
Presentation No Title Presenter
Poster Presentation May 27 PM3
SVC37-P01 Estimation of Volcanic Gas Composition and Gas Supply Mechanism at Tokachidake Volcano Based on Drone Multi-GAS Observations Ryo Tanaka
SVC37-P02 Melt Channelization and the Generation of Eruptible Magma in Crystal-Rich Reservoirs Rami Alshembari
SVC37-P03 Magma migration during the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis Mizuki Matsuda
SVC37-P04 Characterizing the two-stage deflation process during eruptions at Sakurajima volcano Kyoka Ishii
SVC37-P05 Characteristic ground deformation cycle detected before and during the 2025 eruption at Shinmoe-dake, Kirishima volcanoes, Japan Ayuta Tsuge
SVC37-P06 Sequences of Eruptive and Inter-Eruptive Activity of Kirishima Volcano, Revealed by Seismic Tremors and Infrasound Mie Ichihara
SVC37-P07 Tracking the Incremental Volcanic Unrest at Campi Flegrei Caldera Using Geodetic Techniques Prohelika Dalal
SVC37-P08 Examination of ground inflation at Kuchinoerabujima volcano as dike intrusions Taishi Yamada