Session outline
| Solid Earth Sciences (S) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Volcanology(VC) | |
| Session ID | S-VC37 | |
| Title | Understanding the links between volcanic unrest and future, or past, major eruptions | |
| Short Title | Volcanic unrest and major eruptions | |
| Main Convener | Name | Taishi Yamada |
| Affiliation | Research Center for Volcano Hazards Mitigation, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | Ryo Tanaka |
| Affiliation | Hokkaido University,Institute of Seismology and Volcanology | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | James Hickey |
| Affiliation | University of Exeter | |
| Co-Convener 3 | Name | Gilles Seropian |
| Affiliation | University of Exeter | |
| Session Language |
E |
|
| Scope |
Major volcanic eruptions (e.g., VEI>4) have provided valuable lessons for understanding volcanic hazards and have helped advance the field of volcanology. However, it is usually rare to experience a major eruption even several times in our lifetime. Most active volcanoes are typically in an unrest state, characterized by events including, but not limited to, transient volcanic earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and surface thermal anomalies. One of our ultimate goals is to gain a future perspective on volcanic activity beyond the unrest, although numerous challenges lie ahead. In this session, we aim to bridge this "gap" by considering unrest as a precursor or aftermath of major eruptions. In particular, the primary driving process of a major eruption is magma intrusion towards the surface from a subsurface reservoir. What observable precursors are expected from our cutting-edge understanding of magma reservoir and intrusion processes? In the other direction, how is the magma reservoir expected to form from the ongoing unrest activities? For example, recent advances in thermomechanical magma reservoir dynamics and magma fracture processes may provide us with direct insights into the link between the magma reservoir and unrest manifestations. Detailed long-term onsite observation (e.g., seismic, geodetic, thermal, and geochemical) and geological and petrological investigations may also provide insight into the hosting magma reservoir and any potential related shallower hydrothermal system. Degassing from a magma reservoir can be a fundamental key to interpreting the physics behind any continuous unrest activity, and where experimental and numerical approaches are highly essential for the understanding. The JpGU-AGU 2026 is an excellent opportunity for such a challenging yet aspirational discussion. We welcome submissions from various fields including those with observational, computational, or experimental approaches, and beyond the existing research frameworks. |
|
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 27 AM2 | |||
| 10:45 - 11:00 | SVC37-01 | A Process-Based Framework for Interpreting Plinian Eruption Precursors: Insights from the 2014 Kelud Volcano Eruption and Implications for Sakurajima | Vico Luthfi Ipmawan |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | SVC37-02 | Characterisation of the 2022–23 unrest episode at Taupō volcano | Eleanor Rachel Heiser Mestel |
| 11:15 - 11:30 | SVC37-03 | Numerical models of magma storage and pathways between Aira Caldera and Sakurajima Volcano, Japan. | Lorenzo Mantiloni |
| 11:30 - 11:45 | SVC37-04 | Mechanisms controlling the scale of vulcanian eruptions at Sakurajima volcano, SW Japan, based on monitoring of ash samples with various timescales. | Taketo Shimano |
| 11:45 - 12:00 | SVC37-05 | Detailed pre-eruptive deformation of Kirishima-Iwoyama volcano, revealed by InSAR and leveling survey | Shohei Narita |
| 12:00 - 12:15 | SVC37-06 | How does a deep chamber modulate the dynamics of a shallow one? Insights from Santorini caldera, southern Aegean | Kostas Konstantinou |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 27 PM3 | ||
| SVC37-P01 | Estimation of Volcanic Gas Composition and Gas Supply Mechanism at Tokachidake Volcano Based on Drone Multi-GAS Observations | Ryo Tanaka |
| SVC37-P02 | Melt Channelization and the Generation of Eruptible Magma in Crystal-Rich Reservoirs | Rami Alshembari |
| SVC37-P03 | Magma migration during the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis | Mizuki Matsuda |
| SVC37-P04 | Characterizing the two-stage deflation process during eruptions at Sakurajima volcano | Kyoka Ishii |
| SVC37-P05 | Characteristic ground deformation cycle detected before and during the 2025 eruption at Shinmoe-dake, Kirishima volcanoes, Japan | Ayuta Tsuge |
| SVC37-P06 | Sequences of Eruptive and Inter-Eruptive Activity of Kirishima Volcano, Revealed by Seismic Tremors and Infrasound | Mie Ichihara |
| SVC37-P07 | Tracking the Incremental Volcanic Unrest at Campi Flegrei Caldera Using Geodetic Techniques | Prohelika Dalal |
| SVC37-P08 | Examination of ground inflation at Kuchinoerabujima volcano as dike intrusions | Taishi Yamada |