大気水圏科学(A) | |||
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セッション小記号 | 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG) | ||
セッションID | A-CG38 | ||
タイトル | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | |
英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | ||
タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | |
英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | ||
代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | 片岡 崇人 |
英文 | Takahito Kataoka | ||
所属 | 和文 | 国立研究開発法人 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | Hiroyuki Murakami |
英文 | Hiroyuki Murakami | ||
所属 | 和文 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research | |
英文 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | ||
共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | 森岡 優志 |
英文 | Yushi Morioka | ||
所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
共同コンビーナ 3 | 氏名 | 和文 | Nathaniel C Johnson |
英文 | Nathaniel C Johnson | ||
所属 | 和文 | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | |
英文 | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | ||
発表言語 | E | ||
スコープ | 和文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome. |
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英文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome. |
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発表方法 | 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション | ||
ジョイントセッション | AGU ,AOGS ,EGU | ||
招待講演 |
Paul-Arthur Monerie (University of Reading/National Center for Atmospheric Science) 横井 覚 (海洋研究開発機構) Jong-Seong Kug (Seoul National University) |
時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
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口頭発表 5月28日 AM1 | |||
9:00 - 9:15 | ACG38-01 | Seasonal predictability of mass coral bleaching events between the Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea with a large-ensemble climate model | 土井 威志 |
9:15 - 9:30 | ACG38-02 | Interannual to multi decadal prediction skill of Summer Monsoon Precipitation | Paul-Arthur Monerie |
9:30 - 9:45 | ACG38-03 | 低次元モデルによる大循環モデル・ペースメーカー実験の再現性評価と熱帯海盆間相互作用への応用 | 木戸 晶一郎 |
9:45 - 10:00 | ACG38-04 | CS-Colored-LIM: a data-driven linear framework for extended ENSO predictions | Lien Justin |
10:00 - 10:15 | ACG38-05 | High-resolution large ensemble simulation with an ocean-assimilated climate model | 水田 亮 |
10:15 - 10:30 | ACG38-06 | Wasserstein Distance as a Tool for Analyzing Large-Ensemble Datasets | 安田 勇輝 |
口頭発表 5月28日 AM2 | |||
10:45 - 11:00 | ACG38-07 | Intraseasonal Northwest–Southeast Oscillations of the Tropical Easterly Jet Core: Dynamical Mechanisms and Modulation by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation | shihua liu |
11:00 - 11:15 | ACG38-08 | 熱帯北西太平洋における夏季北進季節内振動の観測的研究 | 横井 覚 |
11:15 - 11:30 | ACG38-09 | The triple-dip La Niña was key to Earth’s extreme heat uptake in 2022-2023 | 土田 耕 |
11:30 - 11:45 | ACG38-10 | Global and Regional Drivers for Exceptional Climate Extremes in 2023-2024: Beyond the New Normal | 見延 庄士郎 |
11:45 - 12:00 | ACG38-11 | Abrupt shift of El Niño periodicity under CO2 mitigation | 岩切 友希 |
12:00 - 12:15 | ACG38-12 | Amplified El Niño-induced Global SST Variability in a Warming World | Jong-Seong Kug |
講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
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ポスター発表 5月28日 PM3 | ||
ACG38-P01 | 東京における冬季降水に関連した大規模循環場の年々変動 | 田中 達也 |
ACG38-P02 | Assessment of the temporal variability in precipitation trends in southwestern Russia | Mariia Aleshina |
ACG38-P03 | JMA/MRI-CPS3における熱帯季節内変動の予測可能性に対する夏季豪州モンスーンの影響 | 関澤 偲温 |
ACG38-P04 | Seasonal Predictability of Marine Heat Waves during Summer around Hawaii | 高橋 直也 |
ACG38-P05 | Pacemaker hindcast experiments with MIROC6 contributing to the TBIMIP | 片岡 崇人 |