Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A) | ||
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Session Sub-category | Complex & General(CG) | |
Session ID | A-CG38 | |
Title | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | |
Short Title | Climate Variability and Predictability | |
Main Convener | Name | Takahito Kataoka |
Affiliation | JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
Co-Convener 1 | Name | Hiroyuki Murakami |
Affiliation | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | |
Co-Convener 2 | Name | Yushi Morioka |
Affiliation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
Co-Convener 3 | Name | Nathaniel C Johnson |
Affiliation | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | |
Session Language |
E |
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Scope |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome. |
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Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
Joint Session with | AGU ,AOGS ,EGU | |
Invited Authors |
Paul-Arthur Monerie (University of Reading/National Center for Atmospheric Science) Satoru Yokoi (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) Jong-Seong Kug (Seoul National University) |
Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
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Oral Presentation May 28 AM1 | |||
9:00 - 9:15 | ACG38-01 | Seasonal predictability of mass coral bleaching events between the Pacific Ocean and the East China Sea with a large-ensemble climate model | Takeshi Doi |
9:15 - 9:30 | ACG38-02 | Interannual to multi decadal prediction skill of Summer Monsoon Precipitation | Paul-Arthur Monerie |
9:30 - 9:45 | ACG38-03 | Emulating GCM Experiments with Reduced-Complexity Models: An application to Tropical Interbasin Interactions | Shoichiro Kido |
9:45 - 10:00 | ACG38-04 | CS-Colored-LIM: a data-driven linear framework for extended ENSO predictions | Justin Lien |
10:00 - 10:15 | ACG38-05 | High-resolution large ensemble simulation with an ocean-assimilated climate model | Ryo Mizuta |
10:15 - 10:30 | ACG38-06 | Wasserstein Distance as a Tool for Analyzing Large-Ensemble Datasets | Yuki Yasuda |
Oral Presentation May 28 AM2 | |||
10:45 - 11:00 | ACG38-07 | Intraseasonal Northwest–Southeast Oscillations of the Tropical Easterly Jet Core: Dynamical Mechanisms and Modulation by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation | shihua liu |
11:00 - 11:15 | ACG38-08 | Observational study on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Western North Pacific | Satoru Yokoi |
11:15 - 11:30 | ACG38-09 | The triple-dip La Niña was key to Earth’s extreme heat uptake in 2022-2023 | Ko Tsuchida |
11:30 - 11:45 | ACG38-10 | Global and Regional Drivers for Exceptional Climate Extremes in 2023-2024: Beyond the New Normal | Shoshiro Minobe |
11:45 - 12:00 | ACG38-11 | Abrupt shift of El Niño periodicity under CO2 mitigation | Tomoki Iwakiri |
12:00 - 12:15 | ACG38-12 | Amplified El Niño-induced Global SST Variability in a Warming World | Jong-Seong Kug |
Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
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Poster Presentation May 28 PM3 | ||
ACG38-P01 | Interannual variations of large-scale circulations associated with winter precipitation in Tokyo | Tatsuya Tanaka |
ACG38-P02 | Assessment of the temporal variability in precipitation trends in southwestern Russia | Mariia Aleshina |
ACG38-P03 | Impact of the Australian Summer Monsoon on the Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in JMA/MRI-CPS3 | Shion Sekizawa |
ACG38-P04 | Seasonal Predictability of Marine Heat Waves during Summer around Hawaii | Naoya Takahashi |
ACG38-P05 | Pacemaker hindcast experiments with MIROC6 contributing to the TBIMIP | Takahito Kataoka |