Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A)
Session Sub-category Complex & General(CG)
Session ID A-CG53
Title Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales
Short Title Climate Variability and Predictability
Main Convener Name Yoko Yamagami
Affiliation Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Co-Convener 1 Name Soong-Ki Kim
Affiliation Yale University
Co-Convener 2 Name Ayumu Miyamoto
Affiliation Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
Co-Convener 3 Name Yushi Morioka
Affiliation Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Session Language
E
Scope
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) are also welcome.
Presentation Format Oral and Poster presentation
Joint Session with AOGS ,EGU
Time Presentation No Title Presenter
Oral Presentation May 24 PM1
13:45 - 14:00 ACG53-01 How will drivers of marine heatwaves change in the future climate? Jacob Gunnarson
14:00 - 14:15 ACG53-02 Change in Potential Predictability of Temperature Extremes Estimated from Large Ensemble Simulations with and without Warming KENTA OBARA
14:15 - 14:30 ACG53-03 Changes in Wintertime North Pacific Meridional Teleconnection Patterns due to Global Warming: An Energetics Perspective Ryo Satoh
14:30 - 14:45 ACG53-04 Exceptional North Atlantic Warming as a Key Driver of Record Global Temperatures in 2023-2024 Ko Tsuchida
14:45 - 15:00 ACG53-05 Role of Ocean Variability on the Silk Road Teleconnection in Summer Kazuki Igari
15:00 - 15:15 ACG53-06 Subseasonal Prediction Windows for Western North Pacific Subtropical High: Asymmetric Precursors Revealed by Probabilistic Deep Learning Yuki Maeda
Oral Presentation May 24 PM2
15:30 - 15:45 ACG53-07 The unique ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the strong 2023–2024 El Niño Qihua Peng
15:45 - 16:00 ACG53-08 Why were the forecast winter impacts stronger for the marginal La Niña of 2024/25 than for the strong El Niño of 2023/24? Nathaniel C Johnson
16:00 - 16:15 ACG53-09 El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnections to Australian weather and climate: A Review Andrea Taschetto
16:15 - 16:30 ACG53-10 Seasonal chlorophyll-a prediction in the tropical Pacific with a global climate model incorporating marine biogeochemistry (SINTEX-F2bio) Takeshi Doi
16:30 - 16:45 ACG53-11 2020 Spring South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Source of Ensemble Spread in the Following La Niña Forecast Kaichi Morimoto
16:45 - 17:00 ACG53-12 Cyclic properties of Kyoto cherry blossom temperature record over 1100 years, with prediction of a temperature low in mid 2030s Michael W Asten
Presentation No Title Presenter
Poster Presentation May 24 PM3
ACG53-P01 Multi-Scale Controls on Diurnal Rainfall Variability and ENSO Modulation across Vietnam Wan-Ru Huang
ACG53-P02 Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Meiyu Rainfall over Taiwan Li-Shan Tseng
ACG53-P03 Interannual variability of the Rossby Wave Source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impacts on summer teleconnection patterns Maria Murai
ACG53-P04 Predictability of the bimodally interannual variation of the Polar Night Jet in late November in seasonal forecast ensembles Yuta Ando
ACG53-P05 Sensitivity of the Summertime Eurasian Subtropical Westerly Jet to Future Regional Aerosol Reductions Mio Yoshinaga
ACG53-P06 Evaluation predictability of wintertime North American circulation patterns in seasonal forecasting systems Bradley Vernon
ACG53-P07 Does ENSO really drive the Pacific Meridional Mode? Ayumu Miyamoto
ACG53-P08 Warm water transport related to ENSO: A potential alternative index for ENSO prediction Yanguo Li
ACG53-P09 The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Datasets Yushan Han