セッション概要
| 大気水圏科学(A) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| セッション小記号 | 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG) | ||
| セッションID | A-CG53 | ||
| タイトル | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | |
| 英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | ||
| タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | |
| 英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | ||
| 代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | 山上 遥航 |
| 英文 | Yoko Yamagami | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
| 英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
| 共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | Soong-Ki Kim |
| 英文 | Soong-Ki Kim | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | Yale University | |
| 英文 | Yale University | ||
| 共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | 宮本 歩 |
| 英文 | Ayumu Miyamoto | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校 スクリプス海洋研究所 | |
| 英文 | Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego | ||
| 共同コンビーナ 3 | 氏名 | 和文 | 森岡 優志 |
| 英文 | Yushi Morioka | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
| 英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
| 発表言語 | E | ||
| スコープ | 和文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) are also welcome. |
|
| 英文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) are also welcome. |
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| 発表方法 | 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション | ||
| ジョイントセッション | AOGS ,EGU | ||
| 時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 口頭発表 5月24日 PM1 | |||
| 13:45 - 14:00 | ACG53-01 | How will drivers of marine heatwaves change in the future climate? | Jacob Gunnarson |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | ACG53-02 | 温暖化に伴う猛暑の潜在的予測可能性の変化 | 小原 健太 |
| 14:15 - 14:30 | ACG53-03 | Changes in Wintertime North Pacific Meridional Teleconnection Patterns due to Global Warming: An Energetics Perspective | 佐藤 瞭 |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | ACG53-04 | Exceptional North Atlantic Warming as a Key Driver of Record Global Temperatures in 2023-2024 | 土田 耕 |
| 14:45 - 15:00 | ACG53-05 | Role of Ocean Variability on the Silk Road Teleconnection in Summer | 猪狩 和樹 |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | ACG53-06 | Subseasonal Prediction Windows for Western North Pacific Subtropical High: Asymmetric Precursors Revealed by Probabilistic Deep Learning | 前田 優樹 |
| 口頭発表 5月24日 PM2 | |||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | ACG53-07 | The unique ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the strong 2023–2024 El Niño | Qihua Peng |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | ACG53-08 | Why were the forecast winter impacts stronger for the marginal La Niña of 2024/25 than for the strong El Niño of 2023/24? | Nathaniel C Johnson |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | ACG53-09 | El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnections to Australian weather and climate: A Review | Andrea Taschetto |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | ACG53-10 | Seasonal chlorophyll-a prediction in the tropical Pacific with a global climate model incorporating marine biogeochemistry (SINTEX-F2bio) | 土井 威志 |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | ACG53-11 | 2020 Spring South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Source of Ensemble Spread in the Following La Niña Forecast | 森元 海智 |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | ACG53-12 | Cyclic properties of Kyoto cherry blossom temperature record over 1100 years, with prediction of a temperature low in mid 2030s | Michael W Asten |
| 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
|---|---|---|
| ポスター発表 5月24日 PM3 | ||
| ACG53-P01 | Multi-Scale Controls on Diurnal Rainfall Variability and ENSO Modulation across Vietnam | Wan-Ru Huang |
| ACG53-P02 | Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Meiyu Rainfall over Taiwan | Li-Shan Tseng |
| ACG53-P03 | Interannual variability of the Rossby Wave Source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impacts on summer teleconnection patterns | 村井 マリア |
| ACG53-P04 | Predictability of the bimodally interannual variation of the Polar Night Jet in late November in seasonal forecast ensembles | 安藤 雄太 |
| ACG53-P05 | 地域別エアロゾルの長期削減に対する夏季ユーラシア亜熱帯偏西風ジェットの感度評価 | 吉永 美緒 |
| ACG53-P06 | Evaluation predictability of wintertime North American circulation patterns in seasonal forecasting systems | Bradley Vernon |
| ACG53-P07 | Does ENSO really drive the Pacific Meridional Mode? | 宮本 歩 |
| ACG53-P08 | Warm water transport related to ENSO: A potential alternative index for ENSO prediction | Yanguo Li |
| ACG53-P09 | The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Datasets | Yushan Han |