大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG)
セッションID A-CG53
タイトル 和文 Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales
英文 Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales
タイトル短縮名 和文 Climate Variability and Predictability
英文 Climate Variability and Predictability
代表コンビーナ 氏名 和文 山上 遥航
英文 Yoko Yamagami
所属 和文 海洋研究開発機構
英文 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
共同コンビーナ 1 氏名 和文 Soong-Ki Kim
英文 Soong-Ki Kim
所属 和文 Yale University
英文 Yale University
共同コンビーナ 2 氏名 和文 宮本 歩
英文 Ayumu Miyamoto
所属 和文 カリフォルニア大学サンディエゴ校 スクリプス海洋研究所
英文 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego
共同コンビーナ 3 氏名 和文 森岡 優志
英文 Yushi Morioka
所属 和文 海洋研究開発機構
英文 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
発表言語 E
スコープ 和文
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) are also welcome.
英文
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) are also welcome.
発表方法 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション
ジョイントセッション AOGS ,EGU
時間 講演番号 タイトル 発表者
口頭発表 5月24日 PM1
13:45 - 14:00 ACG53-01 How will drivers of marine heatwaves change in the future climate? Jacob Gunnarson
14:00 - 14:15 ACG53-02 温暖化に伴う猛暑の潜在的予測可能性の変化 小原 健太
14:15 - 14:30 ACG53-03 Changes in Wintertime North Pacific Meridional Teleconnection Patterns due to Global Warming: An Energetics Perspective 佐藤 瞭
14:30 - 14:45 ACG53-04 Exceptional North Atlantic Warming as a Key Driver of Record Global Temperatures in 2023-2024 土田 耕
14:45 - 15:00 ACG53-05 Role of Ocean Variability on the Silk Road Teleconnection in Summer 猪狩 和樹
15:00 - 15:15 ACG53-06 Subseasonal Prediction Windows for Western North Pacific Subtropical High: Asymmetric Precursors Revealed by Probabilistic Deep Learning 前田 優樹
口頭発表 5月24日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45 ACG53-07 The unique ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the strong 2023–2024 El Niño Qihua Peng
15:45 - 16:00 ACG53-08 Why were the forecast winter impacts stronger for the marginal La Niña of 2024/25 than for the strong El Niño of 2023/24? Nathaniel C Johnson
16:00 - 16:15 ACG53-09 El Niño Southern Oscillation teleconnections to Australian weather and climate: A Review Andrea Taschetto
16:15 - 16:30 ACG53-10 Seasonal chlorophyll-a prediction in the tropical Pacific with a global climate model incorporating marine biogeochemistry (SINTEX-F2bio) 土井 威志
16:30 - 16:45 ACG53-11 2020 Spring South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Source of Ensemble Spread in the Following La Niña Forecast 森元 海智
16:45 - 17:00 ACG53-12 Cyclic properties of Kyoto cherry blossom temperature record over 1100 years, with prediction of a temperature low in mid 2030s Michael W Asten
講演番号 タイトル 発表者
ポスター発表 5月24日 PM3
ACG53-P01 Multi-Scale Controls on Diurnal Rainfall Variability and ENSO Modulation across Vietnam Wan-Ru Huang
ACG53-P02 Impact of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Meiyu Rainfall over Taiwan Li-Shan Tseng
ACG53-P03 Interannual variability of the Rossby Wave Source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impacts on summer teleconnection patterns 村井 マリア
ACG53-P04 Predictability of the bimodally interannual variation of the Polar Night Jet in late November in seasonal forecast ensembles 安藤 雄太
ACG53-P05 地域別エアロゾルの長期削減に対する夏季ユーラシア亜熱帯偏西風ジェットの感度評価 吉永 美緒
ACG53-P06 Evaluation predictability of wintertime North American circulation patterns in seasonal forecasting systems Bradley Vernon
ACG53-P07 Does ENSO really drive the Pacific Meridional Mode? 宮本 歩
ACG53-P08 Warm water transport related to ENSO: A potential alternative index for ENSO prediction Yanguo Li
ACG53-P09 The System for Classification of Low-Pressure Systems (SyCLoPS): An All-In-One Objective Framework for Large-Scale Datasets Yushan Han