セッション概要
| 大気水圏科学(A) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| セッション小記号 | 大気科学・気象学・大気環境(AS) | ||
| セッションID | A-AS11 | ||
| タイトル | 和文 | 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ | |
| 英文 | From Weather Predictability to Controllability | ||
| タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | 気象の制御可能性 | |
| 英文 | Weather Controllability | ||
| 代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | 三好 建正 |
| 英文 | Takemasa Miyoshi | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | 理化学研究所 | |
| 英文 | RIKEN | ||
| 共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | 高玉 孝平 |
| 英文 | Kohei Takatama | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | 科学技術振興機構 | |
| 英文 | Japan Science and Technology Agency | ||
| 共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | 中澤 哲夫 |
| 英文 | Tetsuo Nakazawa | ||
| 所属 | 和文 | 科学技術振興機構 | |
| 英文 | Japan Science & Technology | ||
| 発表言語 | E | ||
| スコープ | 和文 |
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability. |
|
| 英文 |
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability. |
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| 発表方法 | 口頭および（または）ポスターセッション | ||
| 時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 口頭発表 5月29日 PM1 | |||
| 13:45 - 14:00 | AAS11-01 | Harnessing the Butterfly Effect: A Duality-Based Framework for the Efficient Control of Extreme Weather | 三好 建正 |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | AAS11-02 | Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability | 澤田 洋平 |
| 14:15 - 14:30 | AAS11-03 | アンサンブル感度に基づく制御位置の最適化 | 大瀧 晴登 |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | AAS11-04 | Objective Detection of Scenarios Prior to Stationary Heavy-rain Events | オエットリ パスカル |
| 14:45 - 15:00 | AAS11-05 | Real-time heavy rainfall forecasting with 30-second dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar assimilation during Osaka Expo 2025 | James David Taylor |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | AAS11-06 | Influence of Arctic sea ice-atmosphere system on subseasonal prediction of Ural blockings | Guokun Dai |
| 口頭発表 5月29日 PM2 | |||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | AAS11-07 | Multispecies weather commons: a conceptual basis for assessing interspecies weather modification interactions | Christoph Rupprecht |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | AAS11-08 | A Global Overview of Weather Modification Activities (2020–2025): Legal and Social Perspectives | 阿部 未来 |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | AAS11-09 | From Predictability to Controllability in Japanese Convective Downpours: Aerosol-Sensitivity Experiments with the Super-Droplet Method | Manhal Alhilali |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | AAS11-10 | Aircraft Observations of Supercooled Water Droplets in Typhoon Halong (2025) | 筆保 弘徳 |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | AAS11-11 | Sensitivity of Typhoon Response to Artificial Cold Pool Forcing at Different Stages of Development | Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | AAS11-12 | AMAGOI: Advancing Weather Modification to Mitigate Extreme Rainfall Disasters | 小槻 峻司 |
| 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
|---|---|---|
| ポスター発表 5月29日 PM3 | ||
| AAS11-P01 | The real butterfly effect in control simulation experiments: a case study of the 2015 Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall | 三ツ井 孝仁 |
| AAS11-P02 | Sampling-Based Control Framework Design for Precipitation Regulation | BINQUAN QIU |
| AAS11-P03 | Sequential Weather Intervention Design Using Model Predictive Control and Black-Box Optimization | 樋口 裕太 |
| AAS11-P04 | A Sampling-Based Model Predictive Control Approach to Precipitation Management | REN QIUYI |
| AAS11-P05 | Spatiotemporal distribution of dry-hot winds in Ukraine: comparison between station data and ERA5-Land reanalysis | Inna Semenova |
| AAS11-P06 | A Field Campaign of Aircraft Experiments and Ground Observations for Cloud Seeding Targeting Winter Convective Clouds | 濱田 篤 |
| AAS11-P07 | Impacts of targeted cloud seeding on convective heavy rainfall: A numerical modeling study of multi Senjo-Kousuitai events | Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua |
| AAS11-P08 | Simulation of Cloud Seeding with Dry Ice Pellets for Marine Stratocumulus Clouds | 木村 優成 |
| AAS11-P09 | 超水滴法を用いた台風環境場の積乱雲内の過冷却水滴に対する強制凍結実験 | 東原 拓哉 |