大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号 大気科学・気象学・大気環境(AS)
セッションID A-AS01
タイトル 和文 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ
英文 From Weather Predictability to Controllability
タイトル短縮名 和文 気象の制御可能性
英文 Weather Controllability
代表コンビーナ 氏名 和文 三好 建正
英文 Takemasa Miyoshi
所属 和文 理化学研究所
英文 RIKEN
共同コンビーナ 1 氏名 和文 Tetsuo Nakazawa
英文 Tetsuo Nakazawa
所属 和文 AORI, The University of Tokyo
英文 AORI, The University of Tokyo
共同コンビーナ 2 氏名 和文 高玉 孝平
英文 Kohei Takatama
所属 和文 科学技術振興機構
英文 Japan Science and Technology Agency
発表言語 E
スコープ 和文 
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.
英文 
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.
発表方法 口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
時間 講演番号 タイトル 発表者
口頭発表 5月30日 PM1
13:45 - 14:00 AAS01-01 The fourth-year overview of Japan’s Moonshot Goal 8 R&D program for controlling and modifying the weather by 2050 三好 建正
14:00 - 14:15 AAS01-02 Exploring weather control technology to steer the atmosphere towards favorable directions based on ensemble data assimilation 小槻 峻司
14:15 - 14:30 AAS01-03 Detection of Separation Scenarios in Extreme Weather Events Using Regional Ensemble Prediction Data Oettli Pascal
14:30 - 14:45 AAS01-04 Feasibility of upstream weather intervention for downstream heavy rainfall mitigation based on ensemble sensitivity analysis 濱田 篤
14:45 - 15:00 AAS01-05 Short-term hourly weather forecasting using PredRNN with image preprocessing Tan Bui-Thanh
15:00 - 15:15 AAS01-06 introduction of operational convection permitting ensemble prediction system of North China Hanbin Zhang
口頭発表 5月30日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45 AAS01-07 Ensemble Kalman Control: Mathematical Platform to Explore Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability 澤田 洋平
15:45 - 16:00 AAS01-08 Understanding the Impact Cold Pools Have on an Approaching Typhoon Using the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee
16:00 - 16:15 AAS01-09 Impact-Based Typhoon Track Ensemble Forecasting for Hagibis (2019): Effects of Typhoon Tracks and Flood Prevention Infrastructure in Flood Damage Assessment 李 肖陽
16:15 - 16:30 AAS01-10 Numerical investigation of the response of idealized tropical cyclones to perturbations in sea surface water vapor flux 吉岡 大秋
16:30 - 16:45 AAS01-11 台風制御技術に対する市民の認識の変容：情報提供と哲学対話がもたらす効果の検討 蘇 雨青
講演番号 タイトル 発表者
ポスター発表 5月30日 PM3
AAS01-P01 Improving numerical weather prediction for heavy rainfall with the assimilation of dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar James David Taylor
AAS01-P02 WRF Simulations of Artificial Water Introduction to the Atmosphere for Mitigating Heavy Rainfall Events in Japan Jose Angelo Hokson
AAS01-P03 Mitigating Convective Heavy Rainfall Through Targeted Cloud Seeding: A WRF Model-Based Study of the 2014 Hiroshima Event Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua
AAS01-P04 Importance of Tropical Indian Ocean Observations to Central Pacific El Niño Prediction Xiaojing Li
AAS01-P05 Ensemble-Based Model Predictive Control for Meteorological Applications 黒澤 賢太
AAS01-P06 Efficiency Assessment of Rainfall Suppression on Flood Inundation Mitigation 張 叡哲
AAS01-P07 限られた介入手段による極端気象制御のボトムアップ型アプローチ：Lorenz 96モデルを用いた検討 三ツ井 孝仁
AAS01-P08 気象への介入設計におけるブラックボックス最適化手法の有用性評価 樋口 裕太
AAS01-P09 台風強度と大気大規模場の応答の関係 那須野 智江
AAS01-P10 The predictability of global river discharge forecast at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale Tamima Amin