大気水圏科学(A) | |||
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セッション小記号 | 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG) | ||
セッションID | A-CG31 | ||
タイトル | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | |
英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales | ||
タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | |
英文 | Climate Variability and Predictability | ||
代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | Hiroyuki Murakami |
英文 | Hiroyuki Murakami | ||
所属 | 和文 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research | |
英文 | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | ||
共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | 森岡 優志 |
英文 | Yushi Morioka | ||
所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | Takahito Kataoka |
英文 | Takahito Kataoka | ||
所属 | 和文 | ||
英文 | |||
共同コンビーナ 3 | 氏名 | 和文 | Xiaosong Yang |
英文 | Xiaosong Yang | ||
所属 | 和文 | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | |
英文 | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | ||
発表言語 | E | ||
スコープ | 和文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities and/or predictability utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome. |
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英文 |
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities and/or predictability utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome. |
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発表方法 | 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション | ||
ジョイントセッション | AGU ,AOGS ,EGU | ||
招待講演 |
Nick Dunstone (Met Office, UK) Hongmei Li (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon) Hyemi Kim (Ewha Womans Univ) 高橋 千陽 (気象庁気象研究所) |
時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
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口頭発表 5月27日 AM1 | |||
09:00 - 09:15 | ACG31-01 | Windows of opportunity for prediciting near-term climate extremes | Nick Dunstone |
09:15 - 09:30 | ACG31-02 | Extending the Horizon of Climate Predictions and Projections through Earth System Insights on Carbon Cycle | Hongmei Li |
09:30 - 09:45 | ACG31-03 | Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime North Pacific Blocking in the GFDL SPEAR forecasting system | Mingyu Park |
09:45 - 10:00 | ACG31-04 | Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between the decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension and the central tropical Pacific in an eddy-resolving coupled model | 田村 優樹人 |
10:00 - 10:15 | ACG31-05 | The presence of halophiles in Antarctic millennium-scale ice could serve as an indicator of the global glacial climate events: The case study of the Vostok ancient ice | Sergey Bulat |
口頭発表 5月27日 AM2 | |||
10:45 - 11:00 | ACG31-06 | Change in MJO predictability by the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Expansion | Hyemi Kim |
11:00 - 11:15 | ACG31-07 | Influence of intraseasonal variability on summer extreme precipitation in Japan and its climatic changes | 高橋 千陽 |
11:15 - 11:30 | ACG31-08 | Dynamics of the 2023/24 strong El Niño: A perspective from influences inside and outside of the tropical Pacific | Tao Lian |
11:30 - 11:45 | ACG31-09 | Driver of the recent decadal surface warming trend over northeastern Canada and Greenland | 小川 史明 |
11:45 - 12:00 | ACG31-10 | Poleward migration as global warming’s possible self-regulator to restrain future western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone’s intensification | I-I Lin |
講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 |
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ポスター発表 5月27日 PM3 | ||
ACG31-P01 | Multi-year predictive skill of the wintertime heavy rainfall potentials in western Japan | 望月 崇 |
ACG31-P02 | Seasonal predictable signals of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall | Kairan Ying |
ACG31-P03 | Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Wind Energy Resources in the contiguous United States | Xiaosong Yang |
ACG31-P04 | Heat budget in the surface layer related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation | 長船 哲史 |
ACG31-P05 | Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability revealed by reconstructed data and model simulations | 森岡 優志 |
ACG31-P06 | Investigating the multiscale variability of Taiwan extreme precipitation with emphasis on weather types | Yi-chao Wu |
ACG31-P07 | Early Warning of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Climate Network Analysis | Zhenghui Lu |
ACG31-P08 | Future marine heatwaves around Japan based on high-resolution ensemble simulations | 川上 雄真 |
ACG31-P09 | Robust future projections of global spatial distribution of major tropical cyclones and sea level pressure gradients | Hiroyuki Murakami |
ACG31-P10 | Modeling the kinetics of cell enlargement of larch trees growing in the permafrost zone of Siberia | Margarita Popkova |