大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号 大気科学・気象学・大気環境(AS)
セッションID A-AS05
タイトル 和文 気象の予測可能性から制御可能性へ
英文 From Weather Predictability to Controllability
タイトル短縮名 和文 気象の制御可能性
英文 Weather Controllability
代表コンビーナ 氏名 和文 三好 建正
英文 Takemasa Miyoshi
所属 和文 理化学研究所
英文 RIKEN
共同コンビーナ 1 氏名 和文 中澤 哲夫
英文 Tetsuo Nakazawa
所属 和文 東京大学　大気海洋研究所
英文 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo
共同コンビーナ 2 氏名 和文 高玉 孝平
英文 Kohei Takatama
所属 和文 科学技術振興機構
英文 Japan Science and Technology Agency
発表言語 E
スコープ 和文 
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.
英文 
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.
発表方法 口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
時間 講演番号 タイトル 発表者
口頭発表 5月31日 AM1
09:00 - 09:15 AAS05-01 An overview of Japan’s Moonshot Goal 8 R&D program for controlling and modifying the weather by 2050 三好 建正
09:15 - 09:30 AAS05-02 An Objective Detection of Separation Scenario in Tropical Cyclone Trajectories Based on Ensemble Weather Forecast Data Oettli Pascal
09:30 - 09:45 AAS05-03 Multi-scale Interaction and Variability of the Tropical Cyclone Intensification Onset 南出 将志
09:45 - 10:00 AAS05-04 A Study on the Meteorological Environment at the Initiation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Malaysia Abdul Aizat Nazmi Bin A Azmi
口頭発表 5月31日 AM2
10:45 - 11:00 AAS05-05 Evaluation of Surface Wind Reduction and Storm Surge Mitigation through Numerical Experiments with Local-Scale Artificial Roughness at the Bay Mouth: BayBlock Experiment 筆保 弘徳
11:00 - 11:15 AAS05-06 Sensitivity of Sea Surface Drag Coefficient for Tropical Cyclone Intensification – Typhoon Faxai (2019) 吉岡 大秋
11:15 - 11:30 AAS05-07 Impact of Sea Surface Evaporation on Developing Tropical Cyclone: Numerical simulation study of Typhoon Faxai(2019) 吉岡 大秋
11:30 - 11:45 AAS05-08 Reducing the Intensity of an Approaching Typhoon Forced by an Artificial Cold Pool Using the Stretched Version of a Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee
講演番号 タイトル 発表者
ポスター発表 5月31日 PM3
AAS05-P01 Assimilation of Multi-Parameter Phased Array Radar Observations for High Precision Precipitation Forecasting using a 1000-member ensemble Kalman filter James David Taylor
AAS05-P02 An Analysis of Climate Variability and Agroclimatic Zone Shifts in the Tana River Basin ワンブア ムウェンドゥワ
AAS05-P03 Exploring Meteorological Interventions through Data assimilation and Model Predictive Control toward Disaster Mitigation in Extreme Weather Events 黒澤 賢太
AAS05-P04 Artificial generation of upstream maritime heavy rains to govern intense-rain-induced disasters over land 小槻 峻司
AAS05-P05 Estimation of impact of typhoon activity on accumulated rainfall in Japan area by using a large ensemble simulation 山田 洋平
AAS05-P06 Effects of number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei on intensity and structure of typhoon 北野 湧斗
AAS05-P07 Employing parameterization schemes to proliferate large-member ensemble for heavy rainfall simulations: Susceptibility to the precipitation and trigger Gaurav Tiwari
AAS05-P08 Idealized numerical simulations for typhoon weakening from the microphysical approach in the Moonshot Goal 8 program 吉田 龍二
AAS05-P09 台風制御の実証実験ガバナンスの論点−Stormfury計画の分析から− 阿部 未来