固体地球科学 (S)
セッション小記号地震学 (SS)
セッション IDS-SS05
タイトル Natural hazards and uncertainty: Informing societal decisions
タイトル短縮名 Hazards, uncertainty and decisons
開催日時
口頭
セッション
5/24(水) AM2
現地
ポスター
コアタイム
5/24(水) PM3
オンライン
ポスター
セッション
5/25(木) AM2
代表コンビーナ 氏名 Matt Gerstenberger
所属 GNS Science
共同コンビーナ1 氏名 Schorlemmer Danijel
所属 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
共同コンビーナ2 氏名 平田 直
所属 国立大学法人東京大学地震研究所
共同コンビーナ3 氏名 Ma Kuo-Fong
所属 Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC
セッション言語 E
スコープ To achieve societies that are resilient to seismic hazard it is necessary to bring together communities from the physical sciences, engineering, the social sciences and end-users, to jointly develop the most useful representation of seismic hazard for societal decisions. The philosophies and methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) were first formalized by Cornell in 1968. In practice, the core components of PSHA have remained similar in the subsequent 50 years, but with increasing complexity in individual components. As communities focus on resilience, is current best-practice meeting these needs? Can methods be rethought to improve current best-practice? Is increasing complexity justified based on our knowledge of earthquake occurrence and the risk-based needs of decision makers and what is the role of the decision makers and other technical communities in designing how we estimate seismic hazard? As complexity increases, what is the trade-off with uncertainty and precision? Given the uncertainties in all modeling components, are the current outputs of PSHA the most effective way of communicating our understanding to end-users in the risk and decision making communities? Finally, can Smart Cities provide information to better quantify hazard in important urban areas around the globe? Various projects like the Belmont-Forum funded RESIST and EU-funded RISE are attempting to address these questions by rethinking how dynamic hazard and risk are and how they can be best communicated. We invite presentations that explore these questions via: modeling methods; providing guidance on delivering more useful and relevant models; and cross-disciplinary actions with physical scientists, social scientists, engineers and decisions makers. Ultimately we aim to evolve seismic hazard modeling to meet the new challenges being defined to develop safer and more resilient communities.
発表方法 口頭およびポスター
共催情報 学協会 -
ジョイント -