Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A)
Session Sub-category Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment(AS)
Session ID A-AS11
Title From Weather Predictability to Controllability
Short Title Weather Controllability
Main Convener Name Takemasa Miyoshi
Affiliation RIKEN
Co-Convener 1 Name Kohei Takatama
Affiliation Japan Science and Technology Agency
Co-Convener 2 Name Tetsuo Nakazawa
Affiliation Japan Science & Technology
Session Language
E
Scope
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability.
Presentation Format Oral and Poster presentation
Time Presentation No Title Presenter
Oral Presentation May 29 PM1
13:45 - 14:00 AAS11-01 Harnessing the Butterfly Effect: A Duality-Based Framework for the Efficient Control of Extreme Weather Takemasa Miyoshi
14:00 - 14:15 AAS11-02 Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability Yohei Sawada
14:15 - 14:30 AAS11-03 Optimization of Control Sites based on ensemble sensitivity Haruto Ohtaki
14:30 - 14:45 AAS11-04 Objective Detection of Scenarios Prior to Stationary Heavy-rain Events Oettli Pascal
14:45 - 15:00 AAS11-05 Real-time heavy rainfall forecasting with 30-second dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar assimilation during Osaka Expo 2025 James David Taylor
15:00 - 15:15 AAS11-06 Influence of Arctic sea ice-atmosphere system on subseasonal prediction of Ural blockings Guokun Dai
Oral Presentation May 29 PM2
15:30 - 15:45 AAS11-07 Multispecies weather commons: a conceptual basis for assessing interspecies weather modification interactions Christoph Rupprecht
15:45 - 16:00 AAS11-08 A Global Overview of Weather Modification Activities (2020–2025): Legal and Social Perspectives Mirai Abe
16:00 - 16:15 AAS11-09 From Predictability to Controllability in Japanese Convective Downpours: Aerosol-Sensitivity Experiments with the Super-Droplet Method Manhal Alhilali
16:15 - 16:30 AAS11-10 Aircraft Observations of Supercooled Water Droplets in Typhoon Halong (2025) Fudeyasu Hironori
16:30 - 16:45 AAS11-11 Sensitivity of Typhoon Response to Artificial Cold Pool Forcing at Different Stages of Development Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee
16:45 - 17:00 AAS11-12 AMAGOI: Advancing Weather Modification to Mitigate Extreme Rainfall Disasters Shunji Kotsuki
Presentation No Title Presenter
Poster Presentation May 29 PM3
AAS11-P01 The real butterfly effect in control simulation experiments: a case study of the 2015 Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall Takahito Mitsui
AAS11-P02 Sampling-Based Control Framework Design for Precipitation Regulation BINQUAN QIU
AAS11-P03 Sequential Weather Intervention Design Using Model Predictive Control and Black-Box Optimization Yuta Higuchi
AAS11-P04 A Sampling-Based Model Predictive Control Approach to Precipitation Management QIUYI REN
AAS11-P05 Spatiotemporal distribution of dry-hot winds in Ukraine: comparison between station data and ERA5-Land reanalysis Inna Semenova
AAS11-P06 A Field Campaign of Aircraft Experiments and Ground Observations for Cloud Seeding Targeting Winter Convective Clouds Atsushi Hamada
AAS11-P07 Impacts of targeted cloud seeding on convective heavy rainfall: A numerical modeling study of multi Senjo-Kousuitai events Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua
AAS11-P08 Simulation of Cloud Seeding with Dry Ice Pellets for Marine Stratocumulus Clouds Yusei Kimura
AAS11-P09 Forced Freezing Experiments of Supercooled Water Droplets in a Typhoon-Environment Cumulonimbus Using the Super-Droplet Method Takuya Tobara