Session outline
| Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology & Atmospheric Environment(AS) | |
| Session ID | A-AS11 | |
| Title | From Weather Predictability to Controllability | |
| Short Title | Weather Controllability | |
| Main Convener | Name | Takemasa Miyoshi |
| Affiliation | RIKEN | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | Kohei Takatama |
| Affiliation | Japan Science and Technology Agency | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | Tetsuo Nakazawa |
| Affiliation | Japan Science & Technology | |
| Session Language |
E |
|
| Scope |
Weather is chaotic, with strong sensitivity to initial conditions tied to the intrinsic limit to predictability. The strong sensitivity also suggests effective control in which small modifications to the atmospheric conditions grow rapidly and result in big changes. Weather predictability has been studied extensively in the past decades, and the weather prediction skills have been improving consistently. Now with the accurate weather prediction, we are ready to study weather controllability, the other side of a coin. Control is achieved by effective accumulation and combination of modifications or interventions like an orbit control of spacecraft. This session welcomes presentations about understanding of weather sensitivity and predictability, theoretical developments of controllability beyond predictability, weather modification techniques, and other related topics toward weather controllability. |
|
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 29 PM1 | |||
| 13:45 - 14:00 | AAS11-01 | Harnessing the Butterfly Effect: A Duality-Based Framework for the Efficient Control of Extreme Weather | Takemasa Miyoshi |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | AAS11-02 | Data-driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability | Yohei Sawada |
| 14:15 - 14:30 | AAS11-03 | Optimization of Control Sites based on ensemble sensitivity | Haruto Ohtaki |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | AAS11-04 | Objective Detection of Scenarios Prior to Stationary Heavy-rain Events | Oettli Pascal |
| 14:45 - 15:00 | AAS11-05 | Real-time heavy rainfall forecasting with 30-second dual Multi-Parameter Phased Array Weather Radar assimilation during Osaka Expo 2025 | James David Taylor |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | AAS11-06 | Influence of Arctic sea ice-atmosphere system on subseasonal prediction of Ural blockings | Guokun Dai |
| Oral Presentation May 29 PM2 | |||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | AAS11-07 | Multispecies weather commons: a conceptual basis for assessing interspecies weather modification interactions | Christoph Rupprecht |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | AAS11-08 | A Global Overview of Weather Modification Activities (2020–2025): Legal and Social Perspectives | Mirai Abe |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | AAS11-09 | From Predictability to Controllability in Japanese Convective Downpours: Aerosol-Sensitivity Experiments with the Super-Droplet Method | Manhal Alhilali |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | AAS11-10 | Aircraft Observations of Supercooled Water Droplets in Typhoon Halong (2025) | Fudeyasu Hironori |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | AAS11-11 | Sensitivity of Typhoon Response to Artificial Cold Pool Forcing at Different Stages of Development | Marguerite Beverly-Anne Eunice Lee |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | AAS11-12 | AMAGOI: Advancing Weather Modification to Mitigate Extreme Rainfall Disasters | Shunji Kotsuki |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter |
|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 29 PM3 | ||
| AAS11-P01 | The real butterfly effect in control simulation experiments: a case study of the 2015 Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall | Takahito Mitsui |
| AAS11-P02 | Sampling-Based Control Framework Design for Precipitation Regulation | BINQUAN QIU |
| AAS11-P03 | Sequential Weather Intervention Design Using Model Predictive Control and Black-Box Optimization | Yuta Higuchi |
| AAS11-P04 | A Sampling-Based Model Predictive Control Approach to Precipitation Management | QIUYI REN |
| AAS11-P05 | Spatiotemporal distribution of dry-hot winds in Ukraine: comparison between station data and ERA5-Land reanalysis | Inna Semenova |
| AAS11-P06 | A Field Campaign of Aircraft Experiments and Ground Observations for Cloud Seeding Targeting Winter Convective Clouds | Atsushi Hamada |
| AAS11-P07 | Impacts of targeted cloud seeding on convective heavy rainfall: A numerical modeling study of multi Senjo-Kousuitai events | Jacqueline Muthoni Mbugua |
| AAS11-P08 | Simulation of Cloud Seeding with Dry Ice Pellets for Marine Stratocumulus Clouds | Yusei Kimura |
| AAS11-P09 | Forced Freezing Experiments of Supercooled Water Droplets in a Typhoon-Environment Cumulonimbus Using the Super-Droplet Method | Takuya Tobara |