Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A)
Session Sub-category Complex & General(CG)
Session ID A-CG31
Title Climate Variability and Predictability on Subseasonal to Centennial Timescales
Short Title Climate Variability and Predictability
Main Convener Name Hiroyuki Murakami
Affiliation Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Co-Convener 1 Name Yushi Morioka
Affiliation Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Co-Convener 2 Name Takahito Kataoka
Affiliation
Co-Convener 3 Name Xiaosong Yang
Affiliation NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Session Language
E
Scope
Climate variability on subseasonal to centennial timescales (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, Southern Ocean Centennial Variability) has significant impacts on global socioeconomic activities by inducing extreme climate events (e.g., atmospheric and marine heatwaves/coldwaves, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones, and floods/droughts) and influencing their physical characteristics. Numerous efforts have been made to comprehensively understand and skillfully predict subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities using observation data and dynamical/statistical models. However, most models still undergo systematic biases in the amplitude, spatial patterns, and frequency of these climate variabilities. These model biases often stem from an inadequate grasp of weather and climate interactions across different spatiotemporal scales (e.g., tropical cyclones-ENSO) and incomplete representation of the complex and nonlinear processes within the climate system (e.g., troposphere-stratosphere coupling, atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions). Therefore, a seamless approach to climate modeling and observational studies across different spatiotemporal scales is essential. This session welcomes all research activities related to subseasonal to centennial climate variabilities and/or predictability utilizing observational data (e.g., satellite, ship, buoy/float, proxy data), theoretical/modeling approaches, and artificial intelligence/machine learning frameworks. Research topics involving the analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are also welcome.
Presentation Format Oral and Poster presentation
Joint Session with AGU ,AOGS ,EGU
Invited Authors Nick Dunstone (Met Office, UK)
Hongmei Li (Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon)
Hyemi Kim (Ewha Womans Univ)
Chiharu Takahashi (Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency )
Time Presentation No Title Presenter
Oral Presentation May 27 AM1
09:00 - 09:15 ACG31-01 Windows of opportunity for prediciting near-term climate extremes Nick Dunstone
09:15 - 09:30 ACG31-02 Extending the Horizon of Climate Predictions and Projections through Earth System Insights on Carbon Cycle Hongmei Li
09:30 - 09:45 ACG31-03 Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime North Pacific Blocking in the GFDL SPEAR forecasting system Mingyu Park
09:45 - 10:00 ACG31-04 Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between the decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension and the central tropical Pacific in an eddy-resolving coupled model Yukito Tamura
10:00 - 10:15 ACG31-05 The presence of halophiles in Antarctic millennium-scale ice could serve as an indicator of the global glacial climate events: The case study of the Vostok ancient ice Sergey Bulat
Oral Presentation May 27 AM2
10:45 - 11:00 ACG31-06 Change in MJO predictability by the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Expansion Hyemi Kim
11:00 - 11:15 ACG31-07 Influence of intraseasonal variability on summer extreme precipitation in Japan and its climatic changes Chiharu Takahashi
11:15 - 11:30 ACG31-08 Dynamics of the 2023/24 strong El Niño: A perspective from influences inside and outside of the tropical Pacific Tao Lian
11:30 - 11:45 ACG31-09 Driver of the recent decadal surface warming trend over northeastern Canada and Greenland Fumiaki Ogawa
11:45 - 12:00 ACG31-10 Poleward migration as global warming’s possible self-regulator to restrain future western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone’s intensification I-I Lin
Presentation No Title Presenter
Poster Presentation May 27 PM3
ACG31-P01 Multi-year predictive skill of the wintertime heavy rainfall potentials in western Japan Takashi Mochizuki
ACG31-P02 Seasonal predictable signals of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall Kairan Ying
ACG31-P03 Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Wind Energy Resources in the contiguous United States Xiaosong Yang
ACG31-P04 Heat budget in the surface layer related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Satoshi Osafune
ACG31-P05 Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability revealed by reconstructed data and model simulations Yushi Morioka
ACG31-P06 Investigating the multiscale variability of Taiwan extreme precipitation with emphasis on weather types Yi-chao Wu
ACG31-P07 Early Warning of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using Climate Network Analysis Zhenghui Lu
ACG31-P08 Future marine heatwaves around Japan based on high-resolution ensemble simulations Yuma Kawakami
ACG31-P09 Robust future projections of global spatial distribution of major tropical cyclones and sea level pressure gradients Hiroyuki Murakami
ACG31-P10 Modeling the kinetics of cell enlargement of larch trees growing in the permafrost zone of Siberia Margarita Popkova