Solid Earth Sciences (S)
Session Sub-categorySeismology (SS)
Session IDS-SS03
Title New insights in Earthquake predictability: modelling and forecasting
Short Title Earthquake predictability
Date & Time Oral session - Channel -
Poster session JUNE 5 (SAT) PM3
Main ConvenerName Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Affiliation Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.
Co-Convener 1Name Jiancang Zhuang
Affiliation Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Co-Convener 2Name Danijel Schorlemmer
Affiliation GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Co-Convener 3Name Naoshi Hirata
Affiliation National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience
Session Language E
Scope Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity, including recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch has provided the testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of forecasting models. This session invites contributions of model developments based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for forecasting seismicity
Presentation Format Oral and Poster presentation
Collaboration Joint with -
Co-sponsored with -