JpGU Meeting 2019
Session outline| Solid Earth Sciences (S) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Seismology (SS) | |
| Session ID | S-SS07 | |
| Title | Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing | |
| Short Title | Seismicity Modelling & Hypothesis Testing | |
| Main Convener | Name | Jiancang Zhuang |
| Affiliation | Institute of Statistical Mathematics | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | Danijel Schorlemmer |
| Affiliation | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | Matt Gerstenberger |
| Affiliation | GNS Science | |
| Co-Convener 3 | Name | Hiroshi Tsuruoka |
| Affiliation | Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ. | |
| Session Language | E | |
| Scope | Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center. | |
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Invited Authors | Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science) YICUN GUO (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan) Kuo-Fong Ma (Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC) Yosihiko Ogata (Research Organization of Information and Systems, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics) | |
| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 27 PM2 | ||||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | SSS07-01 | Improving medium-term earthquake forecasts by compensating the EEPAS model for the time-lag | Matt Gerstenberger | |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | SSS07-02 | Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data | Peng Han | |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | SSS07-03 | Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence | YICUN GUO | |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | SSS07-04 | CSEP Japan results and future developments | Naoshi Hirata | |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | SSS07-05 | From the studies of historical earthquakes to the implication of single fault to multiple fault segments ruptures in seismic hazard analysis | Kuo-Fong Ma | |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | SSS07-06 | High resolution space-time models forecasting 3D seismicity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area | Yosihiko Ogata | |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 27 PM1 | |||
| SSS07-P01 | Development of Physics-based Ground Motion Simulation in A Hybrid Approach and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Taiwan | Ming-Che Hsieh | |
| SSS07-P02 | Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments | Danijel Schorlemmer | |
| SSS07-P03 | Precision versus uncertainty in regional seismic hazard mapping | Matt Gerstenberger | |
| SSS07-P04 | An extreme value analysis of seismograms designed for early forecast of aftershocks | Kaoru Sawazaki | |
| SSS07-P05 | Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes: data analyses of global data. | THYSTERE MATONDO BANTIDI | |
| SSS07-P06 | Kanto 3 month testing class results of CSEP Japan | Hiroshi Tsuruoka | |
| SSS07-P07 | Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue | Jiancang Zhuang | |
| SSS07-P08 | Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan | Jiancang Zhuang | |
| SSS07-P09 | New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western Saudi Arabia | Ryota Kiuchi | |
| SSS07-P10 | Study on the spatial and temporal change of velocity structure before and after 2003 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan | TING YA LIANG | |