JpGU Meeting 2019
Session outline| Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences (A) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment(OS) | |
| Session ID | A-OS07 | |
| Title | Climate variability and predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales | |
| Short Title | S2D climate variability & predictability | |
| Main Convener | Name | Takashi Mochizuki |
| Affiliation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | V Ramaswamy |
| Affiliation | NOAA GFDL | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | Doug Smith |
| Affiliation | Met Office | |
| Co-Convener 3 | Name | Yushi Morioka |
| Affiliation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
| Session Language | E | |
| Scope | Climate variability poses growing threats to human lives and socio-economic activities through changes in frequency and intensity of abnormal weather such as cold/heat waves and floods/droughts. This involves several climate phenomena with a wide range of timescales from subseasonal to decadal variations (e.g. MJO, IOD, ENSO, PDV, AMV). Many efforts have been made for understanding and predicting climate variations on each timescale, but there remain large uncertainties in simulation and prediction of subseasonal to decadal climate variations. This highlights lack of understanding of weather and climate interaction across different spatial and temporal timescales (e.g. tropical cyclones and ENSO) as well as multiple physical processes underlying climate variations (e.g. troposphere-stratosphere coupling, air-sea-ice interaction). This session aims to share current knowledge of subseasonal to decadal climate variability and predictability in order to identify the unresolved issues for better understanding and accurate prediction. This session invites all the abstracts related to the observational, theoretical, process-level and modelling research on subseasonal to decadal climate variability and predictability. | |
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Joint Session with | AGU | |
| Invited Authors | Rosemary Eade (Met Office Hadley Centre) Tomoki Miyakawa (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo) Hiroyuki Murakami (Princeton University/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Liping Zhang (Princeton University) Yosuke Fujii (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency) | |
| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 30 PM1 | ||||
| 13:45 - 14:00 | AOS07-01 | Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclones in 2018 using GFDL and NICAM High-Resolution Global Models | Hiroyuki Murakami | |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | AOS07-02 | Future change of tropical cyclone-induced waves in the Indian Ocean; An analysis based on super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2 climate model | Bahareh Kamranzad | |
| 14:15 - 14:30 | AOS07-03 | The ocean-coupled global cloud-resolving modeling era | Tomoki Miyakawa | |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | AOS07-04 | Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system | Takeshi Doi | |
| 14:45 - 15:00 | AOS07-05 | The life-cycle of annual waves in the Pacific Ocean as identified by a seamless diagnosis for the energy flux | Hidenori AIKI | |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | AOS07-06 | Development of weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system and the evaluation of the coupled reanalysis in JMA/MRI | Yosuke Fujii | |
| Oral Presentation May 30 PM2 | ||||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | AOS07-07 | Decadal variability and predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation | Rosemary Eade | |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | AOS07-08 | Seasonal to multi-year climate predictability in a climate model MIROC6 | Takahito Kataoka | |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | AOS07-09 | Identifying the early 2000s hiatus associated with internal climate variability | Xin-Gang Dai | |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | AOS07-10 | Decadal Evolution of the Surface Energy Budget during the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim | XIAOMING HU | |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | AOS07-11 | The role of ocean variability for multi-year droughts in Australia | Andrea Taschetto | |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | AOS07-12 | Decadal variability and predictability in the Southern Ocean - implications for interpreting recent observed trends | Liping Zhang | |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 30 AM2 | |||
| AOS07-P01 | Changes in North American and European Heatwave Characteristics | Szandra A. Peter | |
| AOS07-P02 | The effects of the "New Climate" Warming on Western Mediterranean: Situation of the Recent Extreme Events | Mohammed-Said KARROUK | |
| AOS07-P03 | Month-to-month Difference of the Western Pacific Subtropical High Simulated by CMIP5 Models | Xiao Dong | |
| AOS07-P04 | Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air–sea coupling | Ziqian Wang | |
| AOS07-P05 | Intraseasonal variation of the South Asian high and its role in connecting the Indian and East Asian summer monsoons | Wei Wei | |
| AOS07-P06 | Mean Surface Air Temperatures in Japan - Regional Classification and Interranual Variability | Pascal Oettli | |
| AOS07-P07 | Inter-Annual Variability of the Indonesian Rainfall and Air-Sea Interaction over the Indian-Pacific Ocean Associated with Regime Shift | Murni Ngestu Nurutami | |
| AOS07-P08 | Exploring synoptic-scale drivers of interannual rainfall variability over Africa | Piotr Wolski | |
| AOS07-P09 | Effect of El Niño on the response ratio of Hadley circulation to different SST meridional structures | Juan Feng | |
| AOS07-P10 | Novel data-driven approach for ENSO prediction | Dmitri Kondrashov | |
| AOS07-P11 | Experimental seasonal climate prediction using CFES: Comparison with the SINTEX-F systems | Nobumasa Komori | |
| AOS07-P12 | Exploring the SST error growth during ENSO developing phase by using BCC_CSM1.1(m) | Ben Tian | |
| AOS07-P13 | Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea | Yushi Morioka | |
| AOS07-P14 | Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate | Takashi Mochizuki | |