JpGU Meeting 2018
Session outline| Solid Earth Sciences(S) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Seismology | |
| Session ID | S-SS06 | |
| Title | CSEP, earthquake forecast testing, and the role of SSE in earthquake occurrence. | |
| Short Title | CSEP and the role of SSE | |
| Main Convener | Name | Danijel Schorlemmer |
| Affiliation | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | Naoshi Hirata |
| Affiliation | Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | Matt Gerstenberger |
| Affiliation | GNS Science | |
| Co-Convener 3 | Name | Hiroshi Tsuruoka |
| Affiliation | Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ. | |
| Session Language | EE | |
| Scope | This session has two scopes. One is CSEP and the other is the role of SSE. (1) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has expanded over the years to many different testing areas hosted at multiple testing centers. One of which is the Japan testing center at the University of Tokyo, operated in collaboration with GFZ Potsdam. Hundreds of earthquake forecast models have been submitted to CSEP and are being tested. We propose to create new areas of activity for CSEP, namely targeted experiments that cannot be conducted with the current CSEP software system. We solicit contributions addressing forecasting models, forecast testing problems, new ideas for CSEP experiments, possibilities of further CSEP developments, ways of expanding CSEP into the hazard and risk domain, and more general views on the forecasting problem. This is aimed at fostering the discussion in the community about further goals of earthquake forecasting experiments. (2) Several recent great and large earthquakes have been spatially or temporally correlated with slow slip events (SSE) on plate boundary faults. For example, events in Japan (Tohoku-Oki), Chile (Iquique), and now New Zealand (Kaikoura) have been immediately preceded or have triggered subsequent SSE. In this session we invite contributions which investigate if and how SSE can trigger large earthquakes using such methods as physics based modeling (e.g., Rate and State Friction, seismicity simulators, stress modeling, etc.), empirical modeling or observations (e.g., ETAS, rate changes, etc.), paleoseismology or any study providing insight into this problem. | |
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Invited Authors |
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| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 21 AM2 | ||||
| 10:45 - 11:00 | SSS06-01 | Increasing Testability, Expanding Possibilities. Some CSEP Future Developments | Danijel Schorlemmer | Abstract |
| 11:00 - 11:15 | SSS06-02 | Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake | Yosihiko Ogata | Abstract |
| 11:15 - 11:30 | SSS06-03 | Foreshock Discrimination and Short-Term Mainshock Forecast Based on Magnitude Differences and Spatio–Temporal Distances | Shunichi Nomura | Abstract |
| 11:30 - 11:45 | SSS06-04 | One-day forecasts generated by the ETAS and Reasenberg-Jones models for the aftershocks following the 2017 Linzhi, Tibet, MS6.9 earthquake, China | Shengfeng Zhang | Abstract |
| 11:45 - 12:00 | SSS06-05 | Episodic unlocking of fault and earthquake | Aitaro Kato | Abstract |
| 12:00 - 12:15 | SSS06-06 | Widespread Triggering of Slow-Slip Earthquakes during the Mw7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake: Implications for Earthquake Forecasting | Matt Gerstenberger | Abstract |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 21 Core Time | |||
| SSS06-P01 | A 3D-hypocentral ETAS model for the Japan CSEP project and initial results | Jiancang Zhuang | Abstract |
| SSS06-P02 | Development of a high-frequency earthquake rupture imaging method at the regional scale; application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes | Tristan Deleplanque | Abstract |
| SSS06-P03 | Estimating centroid location and source dimension of the Te Araroa earthquake (Mw 7.1), New Zealand by analyzing direct and reflected tsunamis | Tatsuya Kubota | Abstract |
| SSS06-P04 | Simple physical model for the probability of a subduction-zone earthquake following slow slip events: Application to the Hikurangi megathrust, New Zealand | Yoshihiro Kaneko | Abstract |
| SSS06-P05 | Characterization of VLF earthquakes in the Colombian Pacific subduction zone | Hiroyuki Kumagai | Abstract |