固体地球科学(S) | |||
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セッション小記号 | 地震学(SS) | ||
セッションID | S-SS07 | ||
タイトル | 和文 | Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing | |
英文 | Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing | ||
タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing | |
英文 | Seismicity Modelling & Hypothesis Testing | ||
代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | 庄 建倉 |
英文 | Jiancang Zhuang | ||
所属 | 和文 | 統計数理研究所 | |
英文 | Institute of Statistical Mathematics | ||
共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | Schorlemmer Danijel |
英文 | Danijel Schorlemmer | ||
所属 | 和文 | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences | |
英文 | GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences | ||
共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | Matt Gerstenberger |
英文 | Matt Gerstenberger | ||
所属 | 和文 | GNS Science | |
英文 | GNS Science | ||
共同コンビーナ 3 | 氏名 | 和文 | 鶴岡 弘 |
英文 | Hiroshi Tsuruoka | ||
所属 | 和文 | 東京大学地震研究所 | |
英文 | Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ. | ||
発表言語 | E | ||
スコープ | 和文 | Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center. | |
英文 | Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center. | ||
発表方法 | 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション | ||
招待講演 | Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science) YICUN GUO (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan) Kuo-Fong Ma (Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC) 尾形 良彦 (大学共同利用機関法人 情報・システム研究機構 統計数理研究所) |
時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 | 予稿原稿 |
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口頭発表 5月27日 PM2 | ||||
15:30 - 15:45 | SSS07-01 | Improving medium-term earthquake forecasts by compensating the EEPAS model for the time-lag | Matt Gerstenberger | 予稿 |
15:45 - 16:00 | SSS07-02 | Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data | 韓 鵬 | 予稿 |
16:00 - 16:15 | SSS07-03 | Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence | YICUN GUO | 予稿 |
16:15 - 16:30 | SSS07-04 | CSEP Japan の結果と今後に向けて | 平田 直 | 予稿 |
16:30 - 16:45 | SSS07-05 | From the studies of historical earthquakes to the implication of single fault to multiple fault segments ruptures in seismic hazard analysis | Ma Kuo-Fong | 予稿 |
16:45 - 17:00 | SSS07-06 | 首都圏直下の3次元高解像度地震活動予測 | 尾形 良彦 | 予稿 |
講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 | 予稿原稿 |
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ポスター発表 5月27日 PM1 | |||
SSS07-P01 | Development of Physics-based Ground Motion Simulation in A Hybrid Approach and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Taiwan | Ming-Che Hsieh | 予稿 |
SSS07-P02 | Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments | Schorlemmer Danijel | 予稿 |
SSS07-P03 | Precision versus uncertainty in regional seismic hazard mapping | Matt Gerstenberger | 予稿 |
SSS07-P04 | An extreme value analysis of seismograms designed for early forecast of aftershocks | 澤崎 郁 | 予稿 |
SSS07-P05 | Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes: data analyses of global data. | THYSTERE MATONDO BANTIDI | 予稿 |
SSS07-P06 | CSEPJapanにおける関東3ヶ月予測結果 | 鶴岡 弘 | 予稿 |
SSS07-P07 | Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue | 庄 建倉 | 予稿 |
SSS07-P08 | Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan | 庄 建倉 | 予稿 |
SSS07-P09 | New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western Saudi Arabia | 木内 亮太 | 予稿 |
SSS07-P10 | Study on the spatial and temporal change of velocity structure before and after 2003 Chengkung earthquake, Taiwan | TING YA LIANG | 予稿 |