大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号海洋科学・海洋環境(OS)
セッションIDA-OS07
タイトル和文季節内から十年規模の気候変動と予測可能性
英文Climate variability and predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales
タイトル短縮名和文Climate variability and predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales
英文S2D climate variability & predictability
代表コンビーナ 氏名和文望月 崇
英文Takashi Mochizuki
所属和文国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構
英文Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
共同コンビーナ 1氏名和文V Ramaswamy
英文V Ramaswamy
所属和文NOAA GFDL
英文NOAA GFDL
共同コンビーナ 2氏名和文Doug Smith
英文Doug Smith
所属和文Met Office
英文Met Office
共同コンビーナ 3氏名和文森岡 優志
英文Yushi Morioka
所属和文海洋研究開発機構
英文Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
発表言語E
スコープ和文熱波や洪水、干ばつなどの異常気象の頻度や強度の変化を通じて、気候変動は我々の生命や生活、社会経済活動の大きな脅威となりつつある。これには、MJOやIOD、ENSO、PDV、AMVなど、季節内から季節、経年、十年といった幅広い時間スケールの気候現象が複雑に関係している。これまで、それぞれの時間スケールに注目しながら気候現象の理解と予測に対する努力が重ねられてきたが、それでもなお季節内から十年規模の気候変動を幅広く予測するには未だ大きな不確実性がある。個別の気候現象に対する不十分な理解に加えて、異なる時空間スケールで卓越する諸現象の相互作用（例えば、熱帯低気圧とENSO現象の相互作用）や、複数の場をまたぐ物理プロセス（例えば、成層圏-対流圏結合や大気海洋海氷相互作用）に対する理解の不足は特に強調されるべき点である。本セッションでは、季節内から十年規模の気候変動と予測可能性をターゲットにして、観測、理論、数値シミュレーションなど様々なアプローチによって得られている現在の知見を共有することにより、より良い理解と予測のために解決すべき問題点と進むべき方向性を明らかにする。
英文Climate variability poses growing threats to human lives and socio-economic activities through changes in frequency and intensity of abnormal weather such as cold/heat waves and floods/droughts. This involves several climate phenomena with a wide range of timescales from subseasonal to decadal variations (e.g. MJO, IOD, ENSO, PDV, AMV). Many efforts have been made for understanding and predicting climate variations on each timescale, but there remain large uncertainties in simulation and prediction of subseasonal to decadal climate variations. This highlights lack of understanding of weather and climate interaction across different spatial and temporal timescales (e.g. tropical cyclones and ENSO) as well as multiple physical processes underlying climate variations (e.g. troposphere-stratosphere coupling, air-sea-ice interaction). This session aims to share current knowledge of subseasonal to decadal climate variability and predictability in order to identify the unresolved issues for better understanding and accurate prediction. This session invites all the abstracts related to the observational, theoretical, process-level and modelling research on subseasonal to decadal climate variability and predictability.
発表方法口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
ジョイントセッションAGU
招待講演Rosemary Eade (Met Office Hadley Centre)
Tomoki Miyakawa (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo)
Hiroyuki Murakami (Princeton University/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Liping Zhang (Princeton University)
藤井 陽介 (気象庁気象研究所)
時間講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
口頭発表 5月30日 PM1
13:45 - 14:00AOS07-01Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclones in 2018 using GFDL and NICAM High-Resolution Global ModelsHiroyuki Murakami予稿
14:00 - 14:15AOS07-02Future change of tropical cyclone-induced waves in the Indian Ocean; An analysis based on super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2 climate modelBahareh Kamranzad予稿
14:15 - 14:30AOS07-03The ocean-coupled global cloud-resolving modeling eraTomoki Miyakawa予稿
14:30 - 14:45AOS07-04Westerly Wind Burst (WWB)/Easterly Wind Surge (EWS)-like stochastic forcing and the effects on ENSO prediction by the SINTEX-F system土井 威志予稿
14:45 - 15:00AOS07-05The life-cycle of annual waves in the Pacific Ocean as identified by a seamless diagnosis for the energy flux相木 秀則予稿
15:00 - 15:15AOS07-06気象研究所における弱結合同化システムの開発とその評価藤井 陽介予稿
口頭発表 5月30日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45AOS07-07Decadal variability and predictability of the North Atlantic OscillationRosemary Eade予稿
15:45 - 16:00AOS07-08Seasonal to multi-year climate predictability in a climate model MIROC6片岡 崇人予稿
16:00 - 16:15AOS07-09Identifying the early 2000s hiatus associated with internal climate variabilityXin-Gang Dai予稿
16:15 - 16:30AOS07-10Decadal Evolution of the Surface Energy Budget during the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-InterimXIAOMING HU予稿
16:30 - 16:45AOS07-11The role of ocean variability for multi-year droughts in AustraliaAndrea Taschetto予稿
16:45 - 17:00AOS07-12Decadal variability and predictability in the Southern Ocean - implications for interpreting recent observed trendsLiping Zhang予稿
講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
ポスター発表 5月30日 AM2
AOS07-P01Changes in North American and European Heatwave CharacteristicsSzandra A. Peter予稿
AOS07-P02The effects of the "New Climate" Warming on Western Mediterranean: Situation of the Recent Extreme Events Mohammed-Said KARROUK予稿
AOS07-P03Month-to-month Difference of the Western Pacific Subtropical High Simulated by CMIP5 ModelsXiao Dong予稿
AOS07-P04Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air–sea couplingZiqian Wang予稿
AOS07-P05Intraseasonal variation of the South Asian high and its role in connecting the Indian and East Asian summer monsoonsWei Wei予稿
AOS07-P06Mean Surface Air Temperatures in Japan - Regional Classification and Interranual VariabilityOettli Pascal予稿
AOS07-P07Inter-Annual Variability of the Indonesian Rainfall and Air-Sea Interaction over the Indian-Pacific Ocean Associated with Regime ShiftMurni Ngestu Nurutami予稿
AOS07-P08Exploring synoptic-scale drivers of interannual rainfall variability over AfricaPiotr Wolski予稿
AOS07-P09Effect of El Niño on the response ratio of Hadley circulation to different SST meridional structuresJuan Feng予稿
AOS07-P10Novel data-driven approach for ENSO predictionKondrashov Dmitri予稿
AOS07-P11Experimental seasonal climate prediction using CFES: Comparison with the SINTEX-F systems小守 信正予稿
AOS07-P12Exploring the SST error growth during ENSO developing phase by using BCC_CSM1.1(m)Ben Tian予稿
AOS07-P13Role of sea-ice initialization in climate predictability over the Weddell Sea森岡 優志予稿
AOS07-P14Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate望月 崇予稿