大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG)
セッションIDA-CG35
タイトル和文地球規模環境変化の予測と検出
英文Projection and detection of global environmental change
タイトル短縮名和文Projection and detection of global environmental change
英文Global environmental change
代表コンビーナ 氏名和文河宮 未知生
英文Michio Kawamiya
所属和文海洋研究開発機構
英文Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
共同コンビーナ 1氏名和文建部 洋晶
英文Hiroaki Tatebe
所属和文海洋研究開発機構
英文Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
共同コンビーナ 2氏名和文立入 郁
英文Kaoru Tachiiri
所属和文海洋研究開発機構
英文Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
発表言語E
スコープ和文地球温暖化および関連する人為起源の環境変化により、極端な気象現象の激甚化や海面上昇、海洋酸性化・貧酸素化、そして大規模な生態系変化が生じることが懸念されている。こうした変化を予測するための実験プロトコル(CMIP6)が、2021年公表予定のIPCC第6次報告書に向けて定められ、それに基づいた各国の研究機関での実験結果が得られつつある。CMIP6の他にも、イベントアトリビューションや、環境変化と社会経済の相互作用を取り入れたモデル開発など、様々なタイプの予測研究が盛んになっている。また、環境変化を捉える観測研究や、予測の信頼性検証ための観測データ解析も重要性を増してきている。本セッションでは、地球規模環境変化予測に関する専門的な議論に加え、モデル予測と観測、社会科学との分野横断的な連携も視野に、最新の研究成果報告と討議を行う。なお本セッションは、Future Earth プロジェクト「地球システムの解析・統合・モデリング」AIMES (https://aimesproject.org/) との共同開催である。
英文Anthropogenic forcings on global environment are expected to cause intensification of extreme events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, as well as large-scale ecosystem changes. The CMIP6 experimental protocol has been established based on which modeling groups across the world are starting to provide environmental projection data toward 6th IPCC assessment report due in 2021. Various new types of studies, such as event attribution and coupling of socio-economic processes and Earth system dynamics, are also emerging in the field of global change projection. In addition, observational studies are becoming increasingly more important for grasping changes in the global environment and evaluating model projections. Interactions and collaborations beyond boundaries of conventional scientific disciplines are desired for dealing with the issue of global changes. This session thus aims to deepen our understanding on global change, from both disciplinary and interdisciplinary viewpoints. This session is co-organized by AIMES - Future Earth project "Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System" (https://aimesproject.org/).
発表方法口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
ジョイントセッションEGU
招待講演Myles Robert Allen (Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford)
Hongmei Li (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany)
時間講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
口頭発表 5月29日 PM1
13:45 - 14:00ACG35-01Sour and anoxic Sea of Japan in the near futureChen-Tung Arthur Chen予稿
14:00 - 14:15ACG35-02Decadal predictions of the variable ocean carbon uptakeHongmei Li予稿
14:15 - 14:30ACG35-03Air-sea CO2 flux variations in the tropical Pacific simulated with two ESMs embedded an ocean data assimilation system渡辺 路生予稿
14:30 - 14:45ACG35-04A Study of Decadal Ocean Deoxygenation and Heat Uptake from a suite of OMIP SimulationsYohei Takano予稿
14:45 - 15:00ACG35-05Role of large-scale environmental variability in changing storm climateNilima Aditya Natoo予稿
15:00 - 15:15ACG35-06The forced response of the climate system: The case of climatic teleconnectionsTamas Bodai予稿
口頭発表 5月29日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45ACG35-07Guiding Mother Earth: taking stock of progress to a long-term temperature goalMyles Robert Allen予稿
15:45 - 16:00ACG35-08Uneven distributions of four hazard indicators of climate change with the Paris Agreement’s goals塩竈 秀夫予稿
16:00 - 16:15ACG35-09Understanding the centennial-scale human-natural interactions using an integrated terrestrial model MIROC-INTEG under ISIMIP2 project佐藤 雄亮予稿
16:15 - 16:30ACG35-10Radiative forcing of the physiological CO2 responseVictor Brovkin予稿
16:30 - 16:45ACG35-11Progress of MIROC-ES2 simulations in CMIP6 and the analysis of the biogeochemical feedbacks羽島 知洋予稿
16:45 - 17:00ACG35-12The impact of long-term historical warming on the global terrestrial gross primary productionIrina Melnikova予稿
講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
ポスター発表 5月29日 AM2
ACG35-P01World Regionalization of Climate Change (1961–2010)Shao Sun予稿
ACG35-P02Quantifying and identifying future climate signal, noise, and internal variability at finer temporal scalesJongho Kim予稿
ACG35-P03Basic evaluation of MIROC6 and current status of CMIP6 experiments建部 洋晶予稿
ACG35-P04Synchronized increase of extreme cold and warm events in China during the recent global warming slowdownXiubao Sun予稿
ACG35-P05Quantification of thermodynamical and dynamical contributions to the anthropogenic influences on tropical cyclone rainfall extremesCheng-Ta Chen予稿
ACG35-P06Temporal Evolution of the Long-Term Distributional Biases of Climate Models as a Parameter for the Regional Evaluation of the Simulation of Climate ChangeMartin Gomez-Garcia予稿
ACG35-P07A global simulation of bioenergy crop yieldZhipin Ai予稿
ACG35-P08Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models - Theme B: national research program in Japan on earth system modeling河宮 未知生予稿
ACG35-P09Towards probabilistic climate projections based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble筒井 純一予稿
ACG35-P10Effect on the earth system of realizing 1.5 degree climate target by overshooting after reaching 2 degree level立入 郁予稿
ACG35-P11Historical regional and sectoral contributions to climate change蘇 宣銘予稿
ACG35-P12Future projection of global climate, water, food, bio-energy, and land investigated with MIROC-INTEG: a global bio-geophysical land surface model with human components横畠 徳太予稿
ACG35-P13Downscaling a global agricultural land use model to country level for national SSP analysisWenchao Wu予稿
ACG35-P14Extreme Events and Emergent Trends in Marine Ecosystem Stressors under a historical/RCP8.5 Climate Change PathwayKeith Bradley Rodgers予稿