大気水圏科学(A) | |||
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セッション小記号 | 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般(CG) | ||
セッションID | A-CG35 | ||
タイトル | 和文 | 地球規模環境変化の予測と検出 | |
英文 | Projection and detection of global environmental change | ||
タイトル短縮名 | 和文 | Projection and detection of global environmental change | |
英文 | Global environmental change | ||
代表コンビーナ | 氏名 | 和文 | 河宮 未知生 |
英文 | Michio Kawamiya | ||
所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
共同コンビーナ 1 | 氏名 | 和文 | 建部 洋晶 |
英文 | Hiroaki Tatebe | ||
所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
共同コンビーナ 2 | 氏名 | 和文 | 立入 郁 |
英文 | Kaoru Tachiiri | ||
所属 | 和文 | 海洋研究開発機構 | |
英文 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | ||
発表言語 | E | ||
スコープ | 和文 | 地球温暖化および関連する人為起源の環境変化により、極端な気象現象の激甚化や海面上昇、海洋酸性化・貧酸素化、そして大規模な生態系変化が生じることが懸念されている。こうした変化を予測するための実験プロトコル(CMIP6)が、2021年公表予定のIPCC第6次報告書に向けて定められ、それに基づいた各国の研究機関での実験結果が得られつつある。CMIP6の他にも、イベントアトリビューションや、環境変化と社会経済の相互作用を取り入れたモデル開発など、様々なタイプの予測研究が盛んになっている。また、環境変化を捉える観測研究や、予測の信頼性検証ための観測データ解析も重要性を増してきている。本セッションでは、地球規模環境変化予測に関する専門的な議論に加え、モデル予測と観測、社会科学との分野横断的な連携も視野に、最新の研究成果報告と討議を行う。なお本セッションは、Future Earth プロジェクト「地球システムの解析・統合・モデリング」AIMES (https://aimesproject.org/) との共同開催である。 | |
英文 | Anthropogenic forcings on global environment are expected to cause intensification of extreme events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, as well as large-scale ecosystem changes. The CMIP6 experimental protocol has been established based on which modeling groups across the world are starting to provide environmental projection data toward 6th IPCC assessment report due in 2021. Various new types of studies, such as event attribution and coupling of socio-economic processes and Earth system dynamics, are also emerging in the field of global change projection. In addition, observational studies are becoming increasingly more important for grasping changes in the global environment and evaluating model projections. Interactions and collaborations beyond boundaries of conventional scientific disciplines are desired for dealing with the issue of global changes. This session thus aims to deepen our understanding on global change, from both disciplinary and interdisciplinary viewpoints. This session is co-organized by AIMES - Future Earth project "Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System" (https://aimesproject.org/). | ||
発表方法 | 口頭および(または)ポスターセッション | ||
ジョイントセッション | EGU | ||
招待講演 | Myles Robert Allen (Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford) Hongmei Li (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany) |
時間 | 講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 | 予稿原稿 |
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口頭発表 5月29日 PM1 | ||||
13:45 - 14:00 | ACG35-01 | Sour and anoxic Sea of Japan in the near future | Chen-Tung Arthur Chen | 予稿 |
14:00 - 14:15 | ACG35-02 | Decadal predictions of the variable ocean carbon uptake | Hongmei Li | 予稿 |
14:15 - 14:30 | ACG35-03 | Air-sea CO2 flux variations in the tropical Pacific simulated with two ESMs embedded an ocean data assimilation system | 渡辺 路生 | 予稿 |
14:30 - 14:45 | ACG35-04 | A Study of Decadal Ocean Deoxygenation and Heat Uptake from a suite of OMIP Simulations | Yohei Takano | 予稿 |
14:45 - 15:00 | ACG35-05 | Role of large-scale environmental variability in changing storm climate | Nilima Aditya Natoo | 予稿 |
15:00 - 15:15 | ACG35-06 | The forced response of the climate system: The case of climatic teleconnections | Tamas Bodai | 予稿 |
口頭発表 5月29日 PM2 | ||||
15:30 - 15:45 | ACG35-07 | Guiding Mother Earth: taking stock of progress to a long-term temperature goal | Myles Robert Allen | 予稿 |
15:45 - 16:00 | ACG35-08 | Uneven distributions of four hazard indicators of climate change with the Paris Agreement’s goals | 塩竈 秀夫 | 予稿 |
16:00 - 16:15 | ACG35-09 | Understanding the centennial-scale human-natural interactions using an integrated terrestrial model MIROC-INTEG under ISIMIP2 project | 佐藤 雄亮 | 予稿 |
16:15 - 16:30 | ACG35-10 | Radiative forcing of the physiological CO2 response | Victor Brovkin | 予稿 |
16:30 - 16:45 | ACG35-11 | Progress of MIROC-ES2 simulations in CMIP6 and the analysis of the biogeochemical feedbacks | 羽島 知洋 | 予稿 |
16:45 - 17:00 | ACG35-12 | The impact of long-term historical warming on the global terrestrial gross primary production | Irina Melnikova | 予稿 |
講演番号 | タイトル | 発表者 | 予稿原稿 |
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ポスター発表 5月29日 AM2 | |||
ACG35-P01 | World Regionalization of Climate Change (1961–2010) | Shao Sun | 予稿 |
ACG35-P02 | Quantifying and identifying future climate signal, noise, and internal variability at finer temporal scales | Jongho Kim | 予稿 |
ACG35-P03 | Basic evaluation of MIROC6 and current status of CMIP6 experiments | 建部 洋晶 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P04 | Synchronized increase of extreme cold and warm events in China during the recent global warming slowdown | Xiubao Sun | 予稿 |
ACG35-P05 | Quantification of thermodynamical and dynamical contributions to the anthropogenic influences on tropical cyclone rainfall extremes | Cheng-Ta Chen | 予稿 |
ACG35-P06 | Temporal Evolution of the Long-Term Distributional Biases of Climate Models as a Parameter for the Regional Evaluation of the Simulation of Climate Change | Martin Gomez-Garcia | 予稿 |
ACG35-P07 | A global simulation of bioenergy crop yield | Zhipin Ai | 予稿 |
ACG35-P08 | Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models - Theme B: national research program in Japan on earth system modeling | 河宮 未知生 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P09 | Towards probabilistic climate projections based on the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble | 筒井 純一 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P10 | Effect on the earth system of realizing 1.5 degree climate target by overshooting after reaching 2 degree level | 立入 郁 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P11 | Historical regional and sectoral contributions to climate change | 蘇 宣銘 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P12 | Future projection of global climate, water, food, bio-energy, and land investigated with MIROC-INTEG: a global bio-geophysical land surface model with human components | 横畠 徳太 | 予稿 |
ACG35-P13 | Downscaling a global agricultural land use model to country level for national SSP analysis | Wenchao Wu | 予稿 |
ACG35-P14 | Extreme Events and Emergent Trends in Marine Ecosystem Stressors under a historical/RCP8.5 Climate Change Pathway | Keith Bradley Rodgers | 予稿 |