セッション概要

固体地球科学(S) セッション小記号 地震学(SS) セッションID S-SS02 タイトル 和文 Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake 英文 Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake タイトル短縮名 和文 Earthquake predictability 英文 Earthquake predictability 代表コンビーナ 氏名 和文 平田 直 英文 Naoshi Hirata 所属 和文 東京大学地震研究所 英文 Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo 共同コンビーナ 1 氏名 和文 鶴岡 弘 英文 Hiroshi Tsuruoka 所属 和文 東京大学地震研究所 英文 Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ. 共同コンビーナ 2 氏名 和文 Schorlemmer Danijel 英文 Danijel Schorlemmer 所属 和文 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 英文 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences 国際セッション開催希望 国際セッションとしての開催を希望する 発表主要言語 英語 スコープ 和文 Modern earthquake science requires rigorous experimentation. Earthquake predictability studies (e.g. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models so far. Japan, California, New Zealand and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such tests, and the findings may yield a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about forecast models, their components, and their performance, in particular statistical models. Especially, we would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. 英文 Modern earthquake science requires rigorous experimentation. Earthquake predictability studies (e.g. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models so far. Japan, California, New Zealand and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such tests, and the findings may yield a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about forecast models, their components, and their performance, in particular statistical models. Especially, we would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. 発表方法希望 口頭および（または）ポスターセッション 招待講演 尾形良彦（東京大学） Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ)