Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences(A)
Session Sub-categoryComplex & General(CG)
Session IDA-CG52
TitleLarge Ensemble Modeling Approaches as Tools for Climate and Impacts Research
Short TitleLarge Ensembles in Climate Research
Main Convener NameKeith Bradley Rodgers
AffiliationIBS Center for Climate Physics
Co-Convener 1NameShoshiro Minobe
AffiliationGraduate School of Science, Hokkaido University
Co-Convener 2NameHideo Shiogama
AffiliationCenter for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies
Co-Convener 3NameRyo Mizuta
AffiliationMeteorological Research Institute
Session LanguageE
ScopeLarge ensemble model simulations are now integral tools for evaluating climate variability, climate change, and associated impacts. The range of tools applied encompasses Earth System Models (ESMs), Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs), Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), with the number of ensemble members typically spanning ten to several tens to one hundred. In addition to their utility in identifying emergent forced trends, they are also proving to be of great value in the study of extreme events and how extreme events evolve under anthropogenic perturbations. Furthermore, large ensembles of AGCMs nd OGCMs can prove invaluable as complements to fully coupled models in providing insights into scales and drivers of variability and trends, as well as climate feedbacks.
This session welcomes studies using the full range of large ensemble modeling tools. This includes studies of emergent trends and extreme events, and more generally studies that facilitate interpretation of observations as well as projections of future changes. Abstracts are particularly welcomed that address novel and emergent topics, including but not limited to compound events, biogeochemistry, and observing system design.
Presentation FormatOral and Poster presentation