Solid Earth Sciences(S)
Session Sub-categorySeismology
Session IDS-SS05
TitleEffective usage of PSHA
Short TitleModern PSHA
Main ConvenerNameMatt Gerstenberger
AffiliationGNS Science
Co-Convener 1NameDanijel Schorlemmer
AffiliationGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Co-Convener 2NameKen Xiansheng Hao
AffiliationNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster(NIED)
Co-Convener 3NameKuo-Fong Ma
AffiliationInstitute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC
Session LanguageEE
ScopeSeismic hazard models, including national seismic hazard models (NSHM) of most seismically active countries around the world are used by society for a wide range of applications, such as: optimising insurance rates, foundation of building design standards, large engineering projects and portfolio loss assessments. As such, these models need to be able to meet a wide range of end-user requirements. A crucial part of meeting those needs is to include a realistic assessment in the uncertainty in seismic hazard knowledge, and to translate that in a useful way to end-users and decision makers. In this session we welcome presentations that address fundamental work in the development of seismic hazard models, particularly those that consider key uncertainties in the modeling and how these uncertainties can be modeled in a useful way for end-users. We have identified the following six dominant themes, but welcome topics from across the hazard and risk spectrum: 1) subduction-zone hazard is poorly understood but is significant source of uncertainty in many regions; 2) a focus on quantifying and including epistemic uncertainty is necessary, including uncertainty in fault and earthquake catalogue source models (and uncertainty due to data quality issues), as well as those in ground-motion prediction; 3) ground-motion simulations are becoming increasingly relevant for the NSHMs and require NSHM specific focus; 4) understanding how to include earthquake clustering and triggering will improve hazard forecasts; and 5) a focus on testing of hazard and model components will lead to improved NSHMs; 6) new approaches to seismic hazard and risk that will improve our understanding and the usefulness of hazard and risk models
Presentation FormatOral and Poster presentation
Joint Session withAGU
Invited Authors
  • John G Anderson (University of Nevada, Reno)
  • Nobuyuki Morikawa (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)
  • Chung-Han Chan (Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University)
Time Presentation No Title Presenter Abstract
Oral Presentation May 22 PM2
15:30 - 15:45 SSS05-01A suggestion related to communicating the uncertainties present in probabilistic seismic hazard analysisJohn G Anderson Abstract
15:45 - 16:00 SSS05-02Revision of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Japan based on a new long-term evaluation for subduction earthquakesNobuyuki Morikawa Abstract
16:00 - 16:15 SSS05-03The ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue (1904-2014) for Global and Regional Seismic Hazard AssessmentDmitry Storchak Abstract
16:15 - 16:30 SSS05-04Application of Standard Deviation for Single-station Ground-motion Prediction Model in a Probabilistic Seismic-hazard AnalysisCHIH HSUAN SUNG Abstract
16:30 - 16:45 SSS05-05Rethinking Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in Eastern Taiwan after the 2018 Hualien, Taiwan, Earthquake SequenceChung-Han Chan Abstract
16:45 - 17:00 SSS05-06Modelling time-dependent hazard for central New Zealand following the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, EarthquakeMatt Gerstenberger Abstract
Presentation No Title Presenter Abstract
Poster Presentation May 22 Core Time
SSS05-P01 Meinon Reservoir Project: An improved seismic hazard analysis for Meinon reservoir by site-dependent GMPEs CHIH HSUAN SUNG Abstract
SSS05-P02 Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture YICUN GUO Abstract
SSS05-P03 How well constrained are earthquake rates in low-seismicity areas? Matt Gerstenberger Abstract