JpGU Meeting 2018
Session outline| Atmospheric and Hydrospheric Sciences(A) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Session Sub-category | Ocean Sciences & Ocean Environment | |
| Session ID | A-OS08 | |
| Title | Seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability | |
| Short Title | S2D climate variability & predictability | |
| Main Convener | Name | Takashi Mochizuki |
| Affiliation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
| Co-Convener 1 | Name | V Ramaswamy |
| Affiliation | NOAA GFDL | |
| Co-Convener 2 | Name | Yushi Morioka |
| Affiliation | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | |
| Session Language | EE | |
| Scope | Climate variability on seasonal-to-decadal timescale (e.g. ENSO, IOD, PDO, AMO) involves processes and multiple physical interactions among atmosphere, land, ocean and sea-ice. Many efforts have been made for understanding the underlying physical processes and its predictability, but there remain large uncertainties in model simulation and prediction results of the seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. This indicates that some important gaps still exist in our current knowledge which are not fully resolved in current climate models, for example, atmosphere-ocean-ice interaction, troposphere-stratosphere coupling, initialization, and role of anthropogenic forcings. This session aims to narrow the gaps in our knowledge and identify the unresolved issues for better understanding and prediction of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. All the observations, theoretical, process-level and modelling research on seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and its predictability are greatly welcome. | |
| Presentation Format | Oral and Poster presentation | |
| Joint Session with | AGU | |
| Co-Sponsoring Societies (Society Members) | The Oceanographic Society of Japan, Meteorological Society of Japan | |
| Invited Authors |
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| Time | Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oral Presentation May 20 PM1 | ||||
| 13:45 - 14:00 | AOS08-01 | Decadal variability and predictability in the Southern Ocean - implications for interpreting recent observed trends | Thomas L Delworth | Abstract |
| 14:00 - 14:15 | AOS08-02 | Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic | Lea Svendsen | Abstract |
| 14:15 - 14:30 | AOS08-03 | The Impact of Internal Atmospheric Dynamics on Decadal Climate Predictability | Wei Zhang | Abstract |
| 14:30 - 14:45 | AOS08-04 | Seasonal-to-decadal Prediction with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model | Noel S Keenlyside | Abstract |
| 14:45 - 15:00 | AOS08-05 | Seasonal to multi-year climate prediction experiments using MIROC coupled models | Takahito Kataoka | Abstract |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | AOS08-06 | Sub-seasonal to multi-annual predictions using the JMA seasonal prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2) | Yuhei Takaya | Abstract |
| Oral Presentation May 20 PM2 | ||||
| 15:30 - 15:45 | AOS08-07 | GFDL’s high-resolution seasonal climate prediction system: modeling, initialization and prediction | Xiaosong Yang | Abstract |
| 15:45 - 16:00 | AOS08-08 | One hundred parallel worlds in seasonal prediction | Takeshi Doi | Abstract |
| 16:00 - 16:15 | AOS08-09 | Diagnosing Representations and Associated Impact Factors of the ENSO Persistence Barrier based on CMIP5 Simulations | BEN TIAN | Abstract |
| 16:15 - 16:30 | AOS08-10 | El Niño Prediction by Using a 4 Dimensional Variational Approach | Shuhei Masuda | Abstract |
| 16:30 - 16:45 | AOS08-11 | Data-adaptive harmonic decomposition and stochastic prediction of regional Arctic sea ice extent | Dmitri Kondrashov | Abstract |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | AOS08-12 | Dominant Role of Tropical Atlantic Warming on the Active 2017 Major Hurricanes over the North Atlantic | Hiroyuki Murakami | Abstract |
| Presentation No | Title | Presenter | Abstract |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poster Presentation May 20 Core Time | |||
| AOS08-P01 | Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic and southern Indian Oceans | Yushi Morioka | Abstract |
| AOS08-P02 | Mid-latitude source of the ENSO-spread in SINTEX-F ensemble predictions | Tomomichi Ogata | Abstract |
| AOS08-P03 | A three-region conceptual model for central Pacific El Niño including zonal advective feedback | Xianghui Fang | Abstract |
| AOS08-P04 | Observation of Water Vapor Base on GPS and Radiosonde During the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, on the Sulawesi island - Indonesia | Syachrul Arief | Abstract |
| AOS08-P05 | Experimental Seasonal Climate Prediction Using CFES | Nobumasa Komori | Abstract |
| AOS08-P06 | Multiyear climate prediction using 4D-Var coupled data assimilation system | Takashi Mochizuki | Abstract |
| AOS08-P07 | Decadal variability of sea surface temperature around Japan | Kumi Yoshita | Abstract |
| AOS08-P08 | A study of the fluctuation of planetary albedo in decadal cycle evaluated from JRA-55 | Kazuki Ito | Abstract |
| AOS08-P09 | Interdecadal Explosive Cyclone Activity Associated with the Increased Frequency of Winter Storm Events in Hokkaido, Japan | Takumi Tsukijihara | Abstract |
| AOS08-P10 | Interannual Variability of the Baiu Front in May | Tomohiko Tomita | Abstract |