固体地球科学(S)
セッション小記号地震学(SS)
セッションIDS-SS07
タイトル和文Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing
英文Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing
タイトル短縮名和文Rigorous Seismicity Modelling and Hypothesis Testing
英文Seismicity Modelling & Hypothesis Testing
代表コンビーナ 氏名和文庄 建倉
英文Jiancang Zhuang
所属和文統計数理研究所
英文Institute of Statistical Mathematics
共同コンビーナ 1氏名和文Schorlemmer Danijel
英文Danijel Schorlemmer
所属和文GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
英文GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
共同コンビーナ 2氏名和文Matt Gerstenberger
英文Matt Gerstenberger
所属和文GNS Science
英文GNS Science
共同コンビーナ 3氏名和文鶴岡 弘
英文Hiroshi Tsuruoka
所属和文東京大学地震研究所
英文Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.
発表言語E
スコープ和文Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity
since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high
resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models
for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake
clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard
assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of
the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models
will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new
hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis
model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory
for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing
capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session
focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference
model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and
hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of
earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the
interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development
and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical
hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or
hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center.
英文Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity
since more than 100 years and, with the advent of large-scale digital networks, in high
resolution during the last 30 years. These models include recurrence and stress-release models
for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake
clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard
assessment. However, the overall probabilities remain on the low end and the uncertainties of
the forecasts are not well described. Rigorous data-based development and testing of models
will help further improving forecasting power and accuracy of these models. Similarly, new
hypotheses shall be evaluated rigorously using some existing model as the null hypothesis
model or in dedicated tests addressing the hypothesis directly. In this context, the Collaboratory
for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch provides the necessary testing
capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of models and hypotheses. This session
focuses on research that increases information on seismicity, being with respect to a reference
model or as an independent hypothesis. We solicit contributions of model developments and
hypothesis formulation based on the increased understanding of the physical process of
earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the
interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development
and implementation of improved statistical methods for testing and validating physical
hypotheses based on observed data. In particular, we welcome contributions about model- or
hypothesis-test experiments that could be implemented in the Japan testing center.
発表方法口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
招待講演Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science)
YICUN GUO (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan)
Kuo-Fong Ma (Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Taiwan, ROC)
尾形 良彦 (大学共同利用機関法人　情報・システム研究機構　統計数理研究所)
時間講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
口頭発表 5月27日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45SSS07-01Improving medium-term earthquake forecasts by compensating the EEPAS model for the time-lagMatt Gerstenberger予稿
15:45 - 16:00SSS07-02Earthquake probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data韓 鵬予稿
16:00 - 16:15SSS07-03Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequenceYICUN GUO予稿
16:15 - 16:30SSS07-04CSEP Japan の結果と今後に向けて平田 直予稿
16:30 - 16:45SSS07-05From the studies of historical earthquakes to the implication of single fault to multiple fault segments ruptures in seismic hazard analysisMa Kuo-Fong予稿
16:45 - 17:00SSS07-06首都圏直下の３次元高解像度地震活動予測尾形 良彦予稿
講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
ポスター発表 5月27日 PM1
SSS07-P01Development of Physics-based Ground Motion Simulation in A Hybrid Approach and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment in TaiwanMing-Che Hsieh予稿
SSS07-P02Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future DevelopmentsSchorlemmer Danijel予稿
SSS07-P03Precision versus uncertainty in regional seismic hazard mappingMatt Gerstenberger予稿
SSS07-P04An extreme value analysis of seismograms designed for early forecast of aftershocks澤崎 郁予稿
SSS07-P05Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes: data analyses of global data.THYSTERE MATONDO BANTIDI予稿
SSS07-P06CSEPJapanにおける関東3ヶ月予測結果鶴岡 弘予稿
SSS07-P07Long-term earthquake risk in North China estimated from a modern catalogue庄 建倉予稿
SSS07-P08Distributions of focal mechanisms in background seismicity and earthquake clusters in Japan 庄 建倉予稿
SSS07-P09New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western Saudi Arabia木内 亮太予稿
SSS07-P10Study on the spatial and temporal change of velocity structure before and after 2003 Chengkung earthquake, TaiwanTING YA LIANG予稿