大気水圏科学(A)
セッション小記号大気科学・気象学・大気環境(AS)
セッションIDA-AS02
タイトル和文台風研究の新展開～過去・現在・未来
英文Advances in Tropical Cyclone Research: Past, Present, and Future
タイトル短縮名和文Advances in Tropical Cyclone Research: Past, Present, and Future
英文Tropical Cyclone
代表コンビーナ 氏名和文金田 幸恵
英文Sachie Kanada
所属和文名古屋大学宇宙地球環境研究所
英文Nagoya University
共同コンビーナ 1氏名和文和田 章義
英文Akiyoshi Wada
所属和文気象研究所台風研究部
英文Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute
共同コンビーナ 2氏名和文伊藤 耕介
英文Kosuke Ito
所属和文琉球大学
英文University of the Ryukyus
共同コンビーナ 3氏名和文宮本 佳明
英文Yoshiaki Miyamoto
所属和文慶應義塾大学　環境情報学部
英文Faculty of Environment and Information Studies, Keio University
発表言語E
スコープ和文台風は、大雨・暴風・高潮・高波により沿岸各地に甚大な被害を与えることから社会的関心の高い自然現象である。2018年は平成30年7月豪雨（前線及び台風第７号による大雨等）を皮切りに西日本を西進した台風第12号、８月の発生数の多さ（９個、観測史上三位）に加えて、９月には台風第21号及び台風第24号が強い勢力を保ったまま西日本を縦断し、日本各地に大きな爪痕を残した。また北大西洋ではハリケーンFlorenceが北米に上陸し、猛威を振るった。近年海面水温の上昇とともに、急発達する台風の増加傾向や、熱帯低気圧の最大強度到達緯度の北上傾向が報告されている。過去から現在、そして未来と地球温暖化が進む中で台風を理解し、その予測の高度化を実現することは、地球惑星科学上の重要な課題である。
台風をターゲットとした衛星観測・航空機観測、数値モデルを用いた大規模アンサンブル実験、最先端衛星観測や機械学習といった新しい手法の導入など、過去・現在・未来を通じた幅広い台風研究が国内外で展開されている。本セッションでは、台風をはじめとする熱帯低気圧に関わる幅広い話題に関する発表を募集し、今後の台風研究の方向性を探る。
英文Tropical cyclones (TC) sometimes cause destructive disasters in many countries by torrential rainfall, strong wind, storm surge, and high surf. In 2008, the western Japan suffered a record-breaking heavy rainfall related to Typhoon Prapirooon (2018) in July. Furthermore, two Category 4 typhoons, typhoons Jebi (2018) and Trami (2018), made landfalls on the western Japan in September and caused devastating disasters over the Japanese Islands. In the Northern Atlantic, Hurricane Florence caused catastrophic damage in the eastern side of U.S. Recent studies reported a northward shift of the location where a TC achieved the peak intensity and also reported increases in the frequency of rapidly intensifying storms. Thus, understanding the TC processes related to translation, intensity change and precipitation in the changing climate, and to provide more accurate forecasts and long-term projections are essential for the earth and planetary science.
Advances in innovative observations such as meteorological aircraft, weather satellite, supercomputer systems such as the Earth Simulator and K-computer, and introduction of new methods such as the deep-learning, have led to novel development of numerical weather forecasting and understanding of the phenomena related to TCs in the past, present and future climates. In this session, we welcome papers on various aspects of TC studies. We hope that the session will provide a new direction for future TC researches.
発表方法口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
ジョイントセッションAGU
招待講演山田 広幸 (琉球大学)
時間講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
口頭発表 5月30日 AM1
09:00 - 09:15AAS02-01A GRAPES-based mesoscale EPS for TC forecasting: configuration and performanceXubin Zhang予稿
09:15 - 09:30AAS02-02Evaluation of operational Ensemble based Global Forecast System prediction for Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Medha Deshpande予稿
09:30 - 09:45AAS02-03270メンバーのアンサンブル実験から得られた急発達開始前の熱帯低気圧の構造変化宮本 佳明予稿
09:45 - 10:00AAS02-04Potential impacts of tropical cyclone inner-core convective activity on the predictability of rapid intensification南出 将志予稿
10:00 - 10:15AAS02-05A link between high-speed solar wind streams and rapid intensification of tropical cyclonesPaul Prikryl予稿
10:15 - 10:30AAS02-06Influence of Tropical Lower Stratospheric Cooling on Extreme Deep Convective Activity and Tropical CyclonesKunihiko Kodera予稿
口頭発表 5月30日 AM2
10:45 - 11:15AAS02-07A change in the inner-core structure of Typhoon Trami (2018) as observed through upper-tropospheric aircraft reconnaissance of T-PARCII山田 広幸予稿
11:15 - 11:30AAS02-08台風第21号の上陸に伴う内部構造の劇的変化及びメソ渦と突風の関係嶋田 宇大予稿
11:30 - 11:45AAS02-09Revisiting Asymmetric CAPE in Sheared Tropical CyclonesQingqing Li予稿
11:45 - 12:00AAS02-10Observed rainfall asymmetry of tropical cyclone in the process of making landfall in Guangdong, South ChinaGuanhuan Wen予稿
12:00 - 12:15AAS02-11Volumetric Detection of Tornadic Vortices Associated with Typhoon Nanmadol (2017) Using PAWR and Deep Learning足立 透予稿
口頭発表 5月30日 PM2
15:30 - 15:45AAS02-12Evaluation of the monthly Potential of the 2018 typhoon activity and the effect of the positive PMM and SST of the eastern northwestern Pacific石山 尊浩予稿
15:45 - 16:00AAS02-13Contributions of different time scale variations to tropical cyclogenesis over the western North PacificXi Cao予稿
16:00 - 16:15AAS02-14Binary interaction between TC Chanthu (2016) and a nearby cold low伊藤 耕介予稿
16:15 - 16:30AAS02-15Response of landfalling North Indian Ocean cyclonic disturbances to warming climate and associated environmental parametersJAGABANDHU PANDA予稿
16:30 - 16:45AAS02-16Rainfall contribution of North Indian Ocean cyclonic disturbances over India in a warming climateKASTURI SINGH予稿
16:45 - 17:00AAS02-17Analysis of typhoon tracks and associated precipitation amount over western Japan: A case study with Typhoon Nancy and Typhoon JebiSridhara Nayak予稿
講演番号タイトル発表者予稿原稿
ポスター発表 5月30日 PM1
AAS02-P01Numerical study on lightning frequency in a tropical cyclone佐藤 陽祐予稿
AAS02-P02Sensitivity of Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Nepartak (2016) to Cloud Condensation Nuclei ConcentrationYu-De Wu予稿
AAS02-P03Moisture Budget Analysis for Hurricane Precipitation on TexasSatoshi Iizuka予稿
AAS02-P04Remote response of a developing tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific to large-scale vapor transport from the Kuroshio in boreal fall藤原 圭太予稿
AAS02-P05Asymmetrically Intensifying Processes of a Category 4 Super Typhoon Lan (2017) during High Vertical Wind Shear金田 幸恵予稿
AAS02-P06Roles of preexisting oceanic condition and ocean coupling processes in the intensity prediction during the mature phase of Typhoon Trami (2018)和田 章義予稿
AAS02-P07Development and assessment of the probabilistic storm surge forecast system in Taiwan: Case Study of Typhoon Maria in 2018Chun-Wei Lin予稿
AAS02-P08Basic Data Construction for a Typhoon Disaster Prevention Model : Analysis and Changes by El Nino and La Nina yearHANA NA予稿
AAS02-P09Basic Data Construction for a Typhoon Disaster Prevention Model : Analysis According to the Typhoon Path TypeHANA NA予稿
AAS02-P10Basic Data Construction for a Typhoon Disaster Prevention Model : Monthly Characteristics of Typhoon Rusa, Maemi, Kompasu, and BolavenHANA NA予稿
AAS02-P11太陽風が吹く空間で自転している地球で発生する台風のメカニズム唐澤 信司予稿