固体地球科学(S)
セッション小記号地震学
セッションIDS-SS06
タイトル和文CSEP, earthquake forecast testing, and the role of SSE in earthquake occurrence.
英文CSEP, earthquake forecast testing, and the role of SSE in earthquake occurrence.
タイトル短縮名和文CSEP and the role of SSE
英文CSEP and the role of SSE
代表コンビーナ氏名和文Schorlemmer Danijel
英文Danijel Schorlemmer
所属和文GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
英文GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
共同コンビーナ 1氏名和文平田 直
英文Naoshi Hirata
所属和文東京大学地震研究所
英文Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo
共同コンビーナ 2氏名和文Matt Gerstenberger
英文Matt Gerstenberger
所属和文GNS Science
英文GNS Science
共同コンビーナ 3氏名和文鶴岡 弘
英文Hiroshi Tsuruoka
所属和文東京大学地震研究所
英文Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.
発表言語EE
スコープ和文
英文This session has two scopes. One is CSEP and the other is the role of SSE.
(1) The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has expanded over the years to many different testing areas hosted at multiple testing centers. One of which is the Japan testing center at the University of Tokyo, operated in collaboration with GFZ Potsdam. Hundreds of earthquake forecast models have been submitted to CSEP and are being tested. We propose to create new areas of activity for CSEP, namely targeted experiments that cannot be conducted with the current CSEP software system. We solicit contributions addressing forecasting models, forecast testing problems, new ideas for CSEP experiments, possibilities of further CSEP developments, ways of expanding CSEP into the hazard and risk domain, and more general views on the forecasting problem. This is aimed at fostering the discussion in the community about further goals of earthquake forecasting experiments.
(2) Several recent great and large earthquakes have been spatially or temporally correlated with slow slip events (SSE) on plate boundary faults. For example, events in Japan (Tohoku-Oki), Chile (Iquique), and now New Zealand (Kaikoura) have been immediately preceded or have triggered subsequent SSE. In this session we invite contributions which investigate if and how SSE can trigger large earthquakes using such methods as physics based modeling (e.g., Rate and State Friction, seismicity simulators, stress modeling, etc.), empirical modeling or observations (e.g., ETAS, rate changes, etc.), paleoseismology or any study providing insight into this problem.
発表方法口頭および（または）ポスターセッション
招待講演
  • 加藤 愛太郎 (東京大学地震研究所)
時間 講演番号 タイトル 発表者 予稿原稿
口頭発表 5月21日 AM2
10:45 - 11:00 SSS06-01Increasing Testability, Expanding Possibilities. Some CSEP Future DevelopmentsDanijel Schorlemmer予稿
11:00 - 11:15 SSS06-02次の地震のマグニチュード予測を探る尾形 良彦予稿
11:15 - 11:30 SSS06-03Foreshock Discrimination and Short-Term Mainshock Forecast Based on Magnitude Differences and Spatio–Temporal Distances野村 俊一予稿
11:30 - 11:45 SSS06-04One-day forecasts generated by the ETAS and Reasenberg-Jones models for the aftershocks following the 2017 Linzhi, Tibet, MS6.9 earthquake, China張 盛峰予稿
11:45 - 12:00 SSS06-05Episodic unlocking of fault and earthquake加藤 愛太郎予稿
12:00 - 12:15 SSS06-06Widespread Triggering of Slow-Slip Earthquakes during the Mw7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake: Implications for Earthquake ForecastingGerstenberger Matt予稿
講演番号 タイトル 発表者 予稿原稿
ポスター発表 5月21日 コア
SSS06-P01 A 3D-hypocentral ETAS model for the Japan CSEP project and initial results 庄 建倉 予稿
SSS06-P02 Development of a high-frequency earthquake rupture imaging method at the regional scale; application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes Tristan Deleplanque 予稿
SSS06-P03 津波沿岸反射を用いたテ・アラロア地震 (ニュージーランド，Mw 7.1) のセントロイド水平位置・断層サイズの推定 久保田 達矢 予稿
SSS06-P04 Simple physical model for the probability of a subduction-zone earthquake following slow slip events: Application to the Hikurangi megathrust, New Zealand Kaneko Yoshihiro 予稿
SSS06-P05 Characterization of VLF earthquakes in the Colombian Pacific subduction zone Kumagai Hiroyuki 予稿